For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 1 | 0.0% | -30.0pp |
| 40-60% | 100 | 40.8% | -9.2pp |
| 60-80% | 11 | 50.0% | -20.0pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 354 | 40.7% | $-306.82 | -22.5% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 237 | 40.9% | $-43.00 | -18.1% |
| STRONG | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.00 | -60.0% |
| MED | 112 | 41.3% | $-260.82 | -23.3% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 242 | 40.5% | $-46.00 | -19.0% |
| MLB total runs | 66 | 44.4% | $-140.74 | -21.3% |
| MLB match winner | 46 | 37.0% | $-120.08 | -26.1% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 242 | 40.5% | $-46.00 | -19.0% |
| MLB-ML | 112 | 41.3% | $-260.82 | -23.3% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Spencer Jones MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Henry Davis MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Luis Lara MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.5pp | 51% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.77 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | SEA MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.0pp | 51% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.47 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | SEA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 61% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | CHC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | BOS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Carlos Narváez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Bryan Torres MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | John Rave MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +79.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Jimmy Crooks MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | KC MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.9pp | 47% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.6pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.9pp | 43% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | COL MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.0pp | 47% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.43 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | TEX MLB match winner | H | MED | +6.9pp | 53% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.96 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | NYM MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.91 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | PIT MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.41 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | PHI MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | — | $10 | PUSH | $+0.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.8pp | proj 2.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Esmerlyn Valdez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Heriberto Hernández MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jarren Duran MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +95.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Wade Meckler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Andruw Monasterio MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |