Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

588

261 hit · 324 miss · 3 push

Hit rate

44.6%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-150.89

on $1594 staked

ROI

-9.5%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	4	25.0%	-5.0pp
40-60%	100	50.0%	0.0pp
60-80%	10	66.7%	-3.3pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	588	44.6%	$-150.89	-9.5%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	459	43.8%	$-57.00	-12.4%
STRONG	12	33.3%	$-4.00	-33.3%
MED	117	49.1%	$-89.89	-8.0%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	465	43.0%	$-65.00	-14.0%
MLB total runs	66	60.3%	$+39.59	+6.0%
MLB match winner	46	34.8%	$-128.98	-28.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	9	55.6%	$+1.50	+23.1%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	476	43.5%	$-61.50	-13.0%
MLB-ML	112	49.5%	$-89.39	-8.0%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-09-14	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Luis Campusano MLB prop · Total Bases	LESS	ELITE	-1.2pp	proj 0.3 vs line 1.5	0	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Andrew Benintendi MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Weston Wilson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+96.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Braden Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+96.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Héctor Rodríguez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+75.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	Patrick Bailey MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-14	MLB	ATL MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.4pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-14	MLB	SD MLB match winner	H	MED	+9.3pp	46%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-14	MLB	SEA MLB match winner	H	MED	+5.5pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.17
2026-09-14	MLB	SEA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	60%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.63
2026-09-14	MLB	SF MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-14	MLB	SD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.45
2026-09-14	MLB	MIA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.57
2026-09-13	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Agustín Ramírez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Samuel Basallo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+74.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Héctor Rodríguez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	CIN MLB match winner	A	MED	-14.3pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.14
2026-09-13	MLB	KC MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.2pp	46%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-13	MLB	TEX MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.02
2026-09-13	MLB	HOU MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.18
2026-09-13	MLB	CLE MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.93
2026-09-13	MLB	KC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-13	MLB	SD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.44

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-09-14 22:32:34 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.