For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | — | no data | — |
| 40-60% | 229 | 51.1% | +1.1pp |
| 60-80% | 132 | 56.1% | -13.9pp |
| 80-100% | 4 | 75.0% | -15.0pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 645 | 48.9% | $-146.80 | -5.9% |
| WC | 3 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 225 | 39.6% | $-50.00 | -21.9% |
| STRONG | 48 | 55.8% | $+5.00 | +10.4% |
| MED | 375 | 53.4% | $-107.80 | -4.8% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 227 | 39.2% | $-49.00 | -21.6% |
| 1st inning · YRFI | 150 | 54.7% | $-23.77 | -15.8% |
| MLB total runs | 112 | 53.7% | $-56.01 | -5.0% |
| MLB match winner | 95 | 50.5% | $-29.52 | -3.1% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 37 | 66.7% | $+8.00 | +25.8% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 13 | 38.5% | $-2.50 | -21.7% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 9 | 77.8% | $+5.50 | +64.7% |
| Match winner | 3 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 1 | 0.0% | $-0.50 | -100.0% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 287 | 43.2% | $-38.50 | -13.8% |
| MLB-ML | 207 | 52.2% | $-85.53 | -4.1% |
| MLB-NRFI | 151 | 55.0% | $-22.77 | -15.1% |
| WC-Kalshi | 3 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Brice Matthews MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Tommy Troy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Alejandro Osuna MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Daniel Schneemann MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Rodolfo Durán MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Garrett Mitchell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +76.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Tyler Callihan MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +75.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +66.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.6pp | 61% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.43 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | TEX MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.6pp | 48% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.89 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | NYY MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | MIA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | SEA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Michael Busch MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Seiya Suzuki MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Hao-Yu Lee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Matt Shaw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Nathaniel Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +88.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -20.8pp | 65% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | TEX MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.9pp | 63% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+5.75 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | PHI MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.2pp | 51% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | MIA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | HOU MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | LAD MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.06 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 53% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.73 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 53% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.77 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Marcelo Mayer MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +79.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |