For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 1 | 0.0% | -30.0pp |
| 40-60% | 109 | 43.0% | -7.0pp |
| 60-80% | 12 | 45.5% | -24.5pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 382 | 41.7% | $-293.49 | -19.8% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 255 | 41.6% | $-43.00 | -16.9% |
| STRONG | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.00 | -60.0% |
| MED | 122 | 42.9% | $-247.49 | -20.3% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 260 | 41.2% | $-46.00 | -17.7% |
| MLB total runs | 71 | 45.6% | $-138.22 | -19.5% |
| MLB match winner | 51 | 39.2% | $-109.27 | -21.4% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 260 | 41.2% | $-46.00 | -17.7% |
| MLB-ML | 122 | 42.9% | $-247.49 | -20.3% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Jake Bauers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Carlos Narváez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Andrés Giménez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Max Muncy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | John Rave MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +79.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Luis Lara MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Jimmy Crooks MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Owen Caissie MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +65.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -14.4pp | 52% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | AZ MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.0pp | 46% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.51 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | MIL MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.3pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | BAL MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.2pp | 49% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.40 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.0pp | 53% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.90 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | AZ MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 61% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | BAL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.25 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | BOS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.37 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | MIL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.90 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Spencer Jones MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Henry Davis MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Luis Lara MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.5pp | 51% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.77 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | SEA MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.0pp | 51% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.47 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | SEA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 61% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | CHC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | BOS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Carlos Narváez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Bryan Torres MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | John Rave MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +79.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Jimmy Crooks MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |