edgeboard
Auto-refresh every 5 min · 2026-07-07 22:35 PT

Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded
425
187 hit · 234 miss · 4 push
Hit rate
44.4%
excludes pushes
Cumulative P&L
$-188.59
on $1793 staked
ROI
-10.5%
paper + real combined
CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)
$-120$+0$+982026-06-022026-07-07
CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

PredictedNActual hit rateGap
0-20%no data
20-40%no data
40-60%14149.6%-0.4pp
60-80%3444.1%-25.9pp
80-100%no data
Performance breakdown
By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
MLB42544.4%
$-188.59-10.5%
By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
ELITE24041.7%
$-40.00-16.7%
STRONG1040.0%
$-2.00-20.0%
MED17548.5%
$-146.59-9.5%
By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
MLB prop · Total Bases25041.6%
$-42.00-16.8%
MLB total runs8546.9%
$-134.81-15.9%
MLB match winner6752.2%
$-4.07-0.6%
1st inning · YRFI2343.5%
$-7.71-33.5%
By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
MLB-PP25041.6%
$-42.00-16.8%
MLB-ML15249.3%
$-138.88-9.1%
MLB-NRFI2343.5%
$-7.71-33.5%
Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)
DateSportPickSideTierEdgeModel saidActualStakeResultP&L
2026-07-07MLB
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.3ppproj 1.8 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Victor Bericoto
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.3ppproj 1.8 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Richie Palacios
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.53$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Mike Yastrzemski
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Lars Nootbaar
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+98.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Lawrence Butler
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+95.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Jorge Soler
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+93.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.52$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Tristan Peters
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+90.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Wade Meckler
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+90.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Shohei Ohtani
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+90.0ppproj 2.4 vs line 1.54$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
James Outman
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+87.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Nasim Nuñez
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+86.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.52$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Isaac Collins
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+83.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.52$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Elias Díaz
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+73.0ppproj 1.2 vs line 0.52$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
Kyle Schwarber
MLB prop · Total Bases
MORESTRONG+65.0ppproj 2.1 vs line 1.55$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-07MLB
MIL
MLB match winner
HMED+10.3pp45%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-07-07MLB
CLE
MLB match winner
HMED+5.4pp57%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.65
2026-07-07MLB
KC
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp54%✓ cleared$10HIT$+8.49
2026-07-07MLB
BOS
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp54%✓ cleared$10HIT$+8.55
2026-07-07MLB
PHI
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp53%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-07-06MLB
Richie Palacios
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.52$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-06MLB
Mike Yastrzemski
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-06MLB
Pavin Smith
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+97.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-07-06MLB
Shohei Ohtani
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+90.0ppproj 2.4 vs line 1.56$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-06MLB
José Caballero
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+73.0ppproj 1.2 vs line 0.58$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-06MLB
Taylor Walls
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+64.0ppproj 1.1 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-07-06MLB
Alex Freeland
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+61.0ppproj 1.1 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-07-06MLB
COL
MLB match winner
AMED-12.2pp46%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-07-06MLB
MIL
MLB match winner
HMED+7.9pp57%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-07-06MLB
TOR
MLB match winner
HMED+6.2pp56%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.94
2026-07-06MLB
PHI
MLB match winner
HMED+4.7pp41%✓ cleared$10HIT$+14.30
2026-07-06MLB
HOU
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp56%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.96
2026-07-06MLB
MIL
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp54%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-07-06MLB
COL
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp54%✓ cleared$10HIT$+8.55
2026-07-05MLB
Shohei Ohtani
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 2.6 vs line 1.51$1MISS$-1.00
2026-07-05MLB
Brett Baty
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+99.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.53$1HIT$+1.00
2026-07-05MLB
CWS
MLB match winner
AMED-15.2pp60%✓ cleared$10HIT$+6.72
2026-07-05MLB
STL
MLB match winner
AMED-12.3pp58%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-07-05MLB
BAL
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp58%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-07-05MLB
DET
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp56%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.96
2026-06-29MLB
Brett Baty
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-29MLB
Mark Vientos
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-29MLB
Colton Cowser
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+99.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-29MLB
Pavin Smith
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+97.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-29MLB
Shohei Ohtani
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+90.0ppproj 2.4 vs line 1.55$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-29MLB
Zach McKinstry
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+82.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.52$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-28MLB
Dansby Swanson
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.3ppproj 1.8 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-28MLB
Ian Happ
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-28MLB
A.J. Ewing
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.55$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-28MLB
Tommy Troy
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-07-07 22:35:32 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.