For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 1 | 0.0% | -10.0pp |
| 20-40% | 2 | 50.0% | +20.0pp |
| 40-60% | 71 | 48.6% | -1.4pp |
| 60-80% | 83 | 55.4% | -14.6pp |
| 80-100% | 3 | 66.7% | -23.3pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 203 | 57.0% | $+106.23 | +16.7% |
| Tennis | 29 | 41.4% | $-12.38 | -30.9% |
| WC | 23 | 34.8% | $-15.22 | -33.1% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 63 | 42.9% | $-23.60 | -24.6% |
| STRONG | 16 | 73.3% | $+7.00 | +43.8% |
| MED | 159 | 53.8% | $+89.23 | +15.0% |
| LOW | 17 | 68.8% | $+6.00 | +35.3% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st inning · YRFI | 93 | 54.8% | $-13.20 | -14.2% |
| MLB total runs | 24 | 47.8% | $-41.30 | -17.2% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 23 | 68.2% | $+8.00 | +38.1% |
| MLB match winner | 23 | 65.2% | $+46.31 | +20.1% |
| Match winner | 21 | 19.0% | $-27.33 | -65.1% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 20 | 57.9% | $+3.50 | +22.6% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games Won | 13 | 53.8% | $+1.00 | +7.7% |
| Both teams to score: NO | 12 | 50.0% | $-0.27 | -1.1% |
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 10 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 5 | 60.0% | $+1.50 | +33.3% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games | 4 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 2 | 50.0% | $+0.50 | +33.3% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 1 | 100.0% | $+0.92 | +92.3% |
| Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play | 1 | 100.0% | $+110.00 | +1100.0% |
| Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle | 1 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| Total goals over/under | 1 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Tennis prop · Total Tie Breaks | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-NRFI | 94 | 55.3% | $-12.28 | -13.1% |
| MLB-PP | 60 | 60.3% | $+13.50 | +25.7% |
| MLB-ML | 47 | 56.5% | $+5.01 | +1.1% |
| WC-Kalshi | 23 | 34.8% | $-15.22 | -33.1% |
| Tennis-PP | 18 | 55.6% | $+2.00 | +11.1% |
| Tennis-Kalshi | 11 | 18.2% | $-14.38 | -65.4% |
| Real-Money | 2 | 50.0% | $+100.00 | +500.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.0pp | 49% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.58 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +10.7pp | 67% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+5.03 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | LAD MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.9pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | COL MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.8pp | 47% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.5pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.98 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | DET MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | DET MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | MIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.25 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | NYM MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | ATH @ SD 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | MIN @ BOS 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.85 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | SEA @ KC 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.82 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | NYM @ MIA 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | HOU @ CHC 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | TB @ NYY 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 63% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | PIT @ TOR 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 63% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.59 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | DET @ BAL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 64% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.56 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | CLE @ PHI 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 65% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | WSH @ ATL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 68% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | DET @ BAL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 69% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.45 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | CWS @ SF 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 70% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.43 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | TEX @ LAA 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 71% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | COL @ AZ 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 72% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.39 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | LAD @ MIL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 75% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | WC | Lecce vs Genoa Match winner | Genoa | ELITE | +20.9pp | 41% | ✗ missed | $2 | MISS | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | WC | Hellas Verona vs Roma Both teams to score: NO | BTTS No | ELITE | +15.4pp | 77% | ✓ cleared | $2 | HIT | $+1.24 |
| 2026-05-24 | WC | AC Milan vs Cagliari Both teams to score: NO | BTTS No | ELITE | +15.1pp | 75% | ✗ missed | $2 | MISS | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | WC | Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Both teams to score: NO | BTTS No | ELITE | +15.0pp | 47% | ✗ missed | $2 | MISS | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | WC | Cremonese vs Como Both teams to score: NO | BTTS No | ELITE | +11.1pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $2 | MISS | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | WC | Torino vs Juventus Match winner | Torino | MED | +4.3pp | 18% | ✗ missed | $2 | MISS | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | Tennis | Barbora Krejcikova Tennis prop · Total Games Won | LESS | STRONG | +25.9pp | proj 9.3 vs line 12.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -18.2pp | 66% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | CLE MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.0pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.1pp | 49% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.59 |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.3pp | 49% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.47 |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | NYM MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | HOU MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | CWS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.13 |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | PIT MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | MIN @ BOS 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 | |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | TEX @ LAA 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 52% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.92 | |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | NYM @ MIA 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | SEA @ KC 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.67 | |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | PIT @ TOR 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.61 | |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | HOU @ CHC 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 64% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.56 | |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | CLE @ PHI 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 65% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | CWS @ SF 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 65% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | ATH @ SD 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 66% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-23 | MLB | STL @ CIN 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 70% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |