Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

552

238 hit · 311 miss · 3 push

Hit rate

43.4%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-152.12

on $1494 staked

ROI

-10.2%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	3	0.0%	-30.0pp
40-60%	92	51.1%	+1.1pp
60-80%	11	50.0%	-20.0pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	552	43.4%	$-152.12	-10.2%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	430	42.3%	$-66.00	-15.3%
STRONG	12	33.3%	$-4.00	-33.3%
MED	110	48.6%	$-82.12	-7.8%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	436	41.5%	$-74.00	-17.0%
MLB total runs	62	52.5%	$-46.38	-7.5%
MLB match winner	43	44.2%	$-35.24	-8.2%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	9	55.6%	$+1.50	+23.1%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	447	42.1%	$-70.50	-15.9%
MLB-ML	105	49.0%	$-81.62	-7.8%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-09-11	MLB	Kyle Stowers MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.5pp	proj 2.0 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Agustín Ramírez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Heriberto Hernández MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Dylan Beavers MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Trevor Larnach MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	John Rave MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+79.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Ben Malgeri MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+74.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	José Caballero MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Jorbit Vivas MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+72.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	Leody Taveras MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+68.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-11	MLB	PIT MLB match winner	A	MED	-14.4pp	51%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-11	MLB	LAD MLB match winner	H	MED	+12.0pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-11	MLB	KC MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.5pp	46%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+11.65
2026-09-11	MLB	PHI MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.6pp	46%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-11	MLB	CIN MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.3pp	47%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-11	MLB	LAD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.83
2026-09-11	MLB	KC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-11	MLB	SEA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.25
2026-09-11	MLB	CIN MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.33
2026-09-11	MLB	SD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.53
2026-09-10	MLB	Max Fried MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	LESS	STRONG	-4.7pp	proj 27.8 vs line 32.5	30.8	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-10	MLB	Hagen Smith MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	MORE	ELITE	+4.4pp	proj 6.9 vs line 2.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-10	MLB	Ryan Feltner MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.2pp	proj 3.3 vs line 4.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-10	MLB	Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-10	MLB	Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+81.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Ezequiel Tovar MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+80.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+74.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Jorbit Vivas MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+72.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-09-12 09:14:18 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.