For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 1 | 0.0% | -30.0pp |
| 40-60% | 104 | 42.2% | -7.8pp |
| 60-80% | 12 | 45.5% | -24.5pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 468 | 41.9% | $-315.13 | -20.9% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 342 | 42.7% | $-50.00 | -14.6% |
| STRONG | 8 | 12.5% | $-6.00 | -75.0% |
| MED | 118 | 41.7% | $-259.13 | -22.3% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 349 | 41.8% | $-57.00 | -16.3% |
| MLB total runs | 68 | 46.2% | $-126.42 | -18.6% |
| MLB match winner | 48 | 35.4% | $-132.71 | -27.6% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 2 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 352 | 42.0% | $-56.00 | -16.0% |
| MLB-ML | 116 | 41.6% | $-259.13 | -22.3% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 12 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Rafael Flores Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Connor Norby MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Sandy Alcantara MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -1.0pp | proj 3.5 vs line 4.5 | 6 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Robbie Ray MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -1.0pp | proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | 5 | $0 | HIT | $+0.50 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Sal Stewart MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Parker Messick MLB prop · Walks Allowed | LESS | ELITE | -75.0pp | proj 0.8 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Justin Crawford MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | MLB | Rafael Flores Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.6pp | proj 2.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | MLB | Brandon Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | MLB | Esmerlyn Valdez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | MLB | Michael Conforto MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +88.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 6 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | MLB | Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | MLB | Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +79.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | MLB | Charles McAdoo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +70.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | MLB | Yordan Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +69.0pp | proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Rafael Flores Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.7pp | proj 2.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Jazz Chisholm Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Brandon Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Austin Riley MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Esmerlyn Valdez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Trevor Larnach MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Carlos Narváez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | George Lombard Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Josh Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Jonah Heim MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Ke'Bryan Hayes MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +76.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Jorbit Vivas MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | MLB | Esteury Ruiz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | MLB | Rafael Flores Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.7pp | proj 2.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | MLB | Matt Olson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | MLB | Jake Bauers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 6 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | MLB | Esmerlyn Valdez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |