For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | — | no data | — |
| 40-60% | 229 | 51.1% | +1.1pp |
| 60-80% | 128 | 57.0% | -13.0pp |
| 80-100% | 3 | 100.0% | +10.0pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 650 | 49.1% | $-147.02 | -5.8% |
| WC | 3 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 239 | 39.7% | $-52.00 | -21.5% |
| STRONG | 45 | 58.5% | $+7.00 | +15.6% |
| MED | 369 | 53.8% | $-108.02 | -4.8% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 241 | 39.4% | $-51.00 | -21.2% |
| 1st inning · YRFI | 144 | 55.6% | $-21.09 | -14.6% |
| MLB total runs | 113 | 53.2% | $-66.72 | -5.9% |
| MLB match winner | 96 | 51.0% | $-22.21 | -2.3% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 34 | 69.0% | $+9.00 | +31.6% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 13 | 38.5% | $-2.50 | -21.7% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 7 | 100.0% | $+7.00 | +100.0% |
| Match winner | 3 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 1 | 0.0% | $-0.50 | -100.0% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 296 | 43.6% | $-38.00 | -13.2% |
| MLB-ML | 209 | 52.2% | $-88.93 | -4.3% |
| MLB-NRFI | 145 | 55.9% | $-20.09 | -13.9% |
| WC-Kalshi | 3 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | A.J. Ewing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Tommy Troy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Pavin Smith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Lawrence Butler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +95.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Hao-Yu Lee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Matt Shaw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | A | MED | -13.4pp | 51% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.78 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.9pp | 48% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.86 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | TEX MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.6pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.96 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.33 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | ATH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | WSH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.32 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | LAD MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | MLB | CHC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Brice Matthews MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Tommy Troy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Alejandro Osuna MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Daniel Schneemann MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Rodolfo Durán MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Garrett Mitchell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +76.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Tyler Callihan MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +75.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +66.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.6pp | 61% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.43 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | TEX MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.6pp | 48% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.89 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | NYY MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | LAD MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.14 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | MIA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | MLB | SEA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Michael Busch MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Seiya Suzuki MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |