Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

426

183 hit · 239 miss · 4 push

Hit rate

43.4%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-152.29

on $1794 staked

ROI

-8.5%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	1	100.0%	+70.0pp
40-60%	141	50.4%	+0.4pp
60-80%	10	40.0%	-30.0pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	426	43.4%	$-152.29	-8.5%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	266	39.8%	$-54.00	-20.3%
STRONG	8	37.5%	$-2.00	-25.0%
MED	152	50.0%	$-96.29	-6.3%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	274	39.8%	$-56.00	-20.4%
MLB total runs	85	48.1%	$-104.45	-12.3%
MLB match winner	67	52.2%	$+8.16	+1.2%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	274	39.8%	$-56.00	-20.4%
MLB-ML	152	50.0%	$-96.29	-6.3%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-07-11	MLB	Kyle Manzardo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Andrew Benintendi MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Victor Mesa Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Tommy Troy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+94.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Daniel Schneemann MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Gabriel Arias MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Luke Raley MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+80.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Kahlil Watson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+76.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	TJ Friedl MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+67.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Gabriel Rincones Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+65.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	NYY MLB match winner	H	MED	+11.4pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-11	MLB	MIL MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.8pp	53%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.81
2026-07-11	MLB	ATH MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.0pp	57%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.51
2026-07-11	MLB	ATL MLB match winner	H	MED	+5.9pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.71
2026-07-11	MLB	CLE MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-11	MLB	SEA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	—	$10	PUSH	$+0.00
2026-07-11	MLB	ATL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-11	MLB	HOU MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.46
2026-07-11	MLB	CHC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	6	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Tommy Troy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Lars Nootbaar MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+98.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	James Outman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Nolan Arenado MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+85.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	TJ Friedl MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+67.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+63.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Sung-Mun Song MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+63.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-10	MLB	NYY MLB match winner	H	MED	+11.8pp	53%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-10	MLB	ATL MLB match winner	H	MED	+11.6pp	51%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.70
2026-07-10	MLB	COL MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.3pp	51%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.59
2026-07-10	MLB	AZ MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.0pp	39%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+15.39
2026-07-10	MLB	BOS MLB match winner	H	MED	+4.7pp	61%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-10	MLB	SEA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.15

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-07-11 22:35:41 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.