Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

1410

687 hit · 696 miss · 27 push

Hit rate

49.7%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-124.49

on $4606 staked

ROI

-2.7%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	4	75.0%	+65.0pp
20-40%	7	71.4%	+41.4pp
40-60%	413	48.8%	-1.2pp
60-80%	262	56.3%	-13.7pp
80-100%	8	75.0%	-15.0pp

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	1121	50.2%	$-87.06	-2.0%
PGA	215	53.2%	$+13.00	+6.0%
Tennis	46	32.6%	$-32.06	-43.3%
WC	28	32.1%	$-18.38	-32.8%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	414	39.9%	$-101.44	-21.9%
STRONG	275	54.6%	$+18.00	+6.4%
MED	704	53.2%	$-47.06	-1.2%
LOW	17	68.8%	$+6.00	+35.3%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	350	39.7%	$-72.00	-20.6%
1st inning · YRFI	285	54.7%	$-43.99	-15.4%
MLB total runs	188	52.5%	$-127.99	-6.8%
PGA prop · Strokes	169	53.0%	$+10.00	+5.9%
MLB match winner	161	52.8%	$+26.50	+1.6%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	75	65.2%	$+17.00	+27.9%
Match winner	43	18.6%	$-50.17	-58.3%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	36	57.1%	$+5.50	+16.9%
PGA prop · Birdies Or Better	21	55.6%	$+2.00	+9.5%
PGA prop · Bogeys or Worse	20	63.2%	$+5.00	+25.0%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	15	66.7%	$+6.00	+42.9%
Tennis prop · Total Games Won	13	53.8%	$+1.00	+7.7%
Both teams to score: NO	12	50.0%	$-0.27	-1.1%
MLB prop · Pitching Outs	6	50.0%	$+1.00	+20.0%
PGA prop · Pars	5	0.0%	$-4.00	-80.0%
Tennis prop · Total Games	4	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
1st inning · NRFI	3	66.7%	$+0.92	+30.8%
Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play	1	100.0%	$+110.00	+1100.0%
Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle	1	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Total goals over/under	1	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Tennis prop · Total Tie Breaks	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	482	45.6%	$-42.50	-9.2%
MLB-ML	349	52.6%	$-101.49	-2.9%
MLB-NRFI	288	54.9%	$-43.07	-15.0%
PGA-PP	215	53.2%	$+13.00	+6.0%
WC-Kalshi	28	32.1%	$-18.38	-32.8%
Tennis-Kalshi	28	17.9%	$-34.06	-60.8%
Tennis-PP	18	55.6%	$+2.00	+11.1%
Real-Money	2	50.0%	$+100.00	+500.0%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-07-12	MLB	Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Matt Vierling MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	6	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Hao-Yu Lee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	TJ Friedl MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+67.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	AZ MLB match winner	A	MED	-8.5pp	42%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+13.84
2026-07-12	MLB	BOS MLB match winner	H	MED	+7.2pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-12	MLB	NYY MLB match winner	H	MED	+5.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-12	MLB	CLE MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-12	MLB	ATL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-12	MLB	ATH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.88
2026-07-12	MLB	NYY MLB total runs	U	MED	+0.0pp	53%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.73
2026-07-11	MLB	Kyle Manzardo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Andrew Benintendi MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Victor Mesa Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Tommy Troy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+94.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Daniel Schneemann MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Gabriel Arias MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Luke Raley MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+80.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Kahlil Watson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+76.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	TJ Friedl MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+67.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Gabriel Rincones Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+65.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	NYY MLB match winner	H	MED	+11.4pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-11	MLB	AZ MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.6pp	40%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+15.01
2026-07-11	MLB	MIL MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.8pp	53%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.81
2026-07-11	MLB	ATH MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.0pp	57%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.51
2026-07-11	MLB	ATL MLB match winner	H	MED	+5.9pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.71
2026-07-11	MLB	CLE MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-11	MLB	SEA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	—	$10	PUSH	$+0.00
2026-07-11	MLB	ATL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-11	MLB	HOU MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.46
2026-07-11	MLB	CHC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-10	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	6	$1	HIT	$+1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-07-15 10:57:44 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.