Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

392

175 hit · 213 miss · 4 push

Hit rate

45.1%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-130.85

on $1688 staked

ROI

-7.8%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	—	no data	—
40-60%	132	50.8%	+0.8pp
60-80%	20	45.0%	-25.0pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	392	45.1%	$-130.85	-7.8%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	230	42.2%	$-36.00	-15.7%
STRONG	10	40.0%	$-2.00	-20.0%
MED	152	50.0%	$-92.85	-6.4%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	240	42.1%	$-38.00	-15.8%
MLB total runs	81	48.1%	$-112.67	-13.9%
MLB match winner	63	54.0%	$+23.22	+3.7%
1st inning · YRFI	8	37.5%	$-3.40	-42.5%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	240	42.1%	$-38.00	-15.8%
MLB-ML	144	50.7%	$-89.45	-6.2%
MLB-NRFI	8	37.5%	$-3.40	-42.5%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-07-07	MLB	Jazz Chisholm Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Victor Bericoto MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Lars Nootbaar MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+98.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Lawrence Butler MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+95.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Jorge Soler MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Wade Meckler MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	James Outman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+65.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	COL MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.8pp	41%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+14.14
2026-07-07	MLB	MIL MLB match winner	H	MED	+10.3pp	45%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-07	MLB	CLE MLB match winner	H	MED	+5.4pp	57%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.65
2026-07-07	MLB	COL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-07	MLB	KC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.49
2026-07-07	MLB	BOS MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.55
2026-07-07	MLB	PHI MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	53%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Pavin Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	6	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	José Caballero MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	8	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+61.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	COL MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.2pp	46%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-06	MLB	MIL MLB match winner	H	MED	+7.9pp	57%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-06	MLB	TOR MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.2pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.94
2026-07-06	MLB	PHI MLB match winner	H	MED	+4.7pp	41%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+14.30
2026-07-06	MLB	HOU MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.96
2026-07-06	MLB	MIL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-06	MLB	COL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.55
2026-07-05	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 2.6 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-05	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-05	MLB	CWS MLB match winner	A	MED	-15.2pp	60%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.72
2026-07-05	MLB	STL MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.3pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-05	MLB	BAL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-05	MLB	DET MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.96
2026-06-29	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Mark Vientos MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Pavin Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-07-08 09:12:30 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.