For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 2 | 50.0% | +20.0pp |
| 40-60% | 26 | 48.0% | -2.0pp |
| 60-80% | 9 | 77.8% | +7.8pp |
| 80-100% | 3 | 66.7% | -23.3pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 90 | 62.1% | $+155.64 | +44.2% |
| Tennis | 27 | 40.7% | $-11.38 | -30.8% |
| WC | 17 | 41.2% | $-6.46 | -19.0% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 57 | 45.6% | $-14.84 | -17.7% |
| STRONG | 15 | 71.4% | $+6.00 | +40.0% |
| MED | 45 | 56.8% | $+140.64 | +45.7% |
| LOW | 17 | 68.8% | $+6.00 | +35.3% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 23 | 68.2% | $+8.00 | +38.1% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 20 | 57.9% | $+3.50 | +22.6% |
| Match winner | 18 | 22.2% | $-21.33 | -59.2% |
| MLB total runs | 15 | 64.3% | $+12.32 | +8.2% |
| MLB match winner | 13 | 69.2% | $+29.82 | +22.9% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games Won | 12 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 10 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| Both teams to score: NO | 8 | 62.5% | $+4.49 | +28.1% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 5 | 60.0% | $+1.50 | +33.3% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games | 4 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 2 | 50.0% | $+0.50 | +33.3% |
| Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play | 1 | 100.0% | $+110.00 | +1100.0% |
| Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle | 1 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| Total goals over/under | 1 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Tennis prop · Total Tie Breaks | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 60 | 60.3% | $+13.50 | +25.7% |
| MLB-ML | 28 | 66.7% | $+42.14 | +15.0% |
| WC-Kalshi | 17 | 41.2% | $-6.46 | -19.0% |
| Tennis-PP | 17 | 52.9% | $+1.00 | +5.9% |
| Tennis-Kalshi | 10 | 20.0% | $-12.38 | -61.9% |
| Real-Money | 2 | 50.0% | $+100.00 | +500.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Tennis | Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar Match winner | ELITE | +14.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $2 | HIT | $+2.88 | |
| 2026-05-19 | MLB | Griffin Jax MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | MORE | STRONG | +1.9pp | proj 6.4 vs line 4.5 | 6 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | MLB | Kyle Bradish MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | MORE | STRONG | +1.8pp | proj 6.8 vs line 5.0 | 6 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | MLB | Jesús Luzardo MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -1.8pp | proj 5.2 vs line 7.0 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | MLB | Parker Messick MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -1.8pp | proj 4.2 vs line 6.0 | 6 | $1 | PUSH | $+0.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | MLB | Anthony Kay MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -1.7pp | proj 2.8 vs line 4.5 | 5 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | MLB | Jacob Misiorowski MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -1.7pp | proj 5.8 vs line 7.5 | 8 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-05-19 | MLB | Dylan Cease MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -1.6pp | proj 5.4 vs line 7.0 | 9 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-05-19 | MLB | Matthew Liberatore MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -1.1pp | proj 3.4 vs line 4.5 | 9 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-05-19 | MLB | Reid Detmers MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -100.0pp | proj 5.5 vs line 6.5 | 8 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-05-19 | MLB | Jacob Lopez MLB prop · Walks Allowed | LESS | MED | -57.0pp | proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | 3 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Trevor Rogers MLB prop · Pitching Outs | LESS | STRONG | -5.7pp | proj 10.8 vs line 16.5 | 11 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Brandon Sproat MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE | STRONG | +4.9pp | proj 23.4 vs line 18.5 | 24.7 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Robbie Ray MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE | STRONG | +4.8pp | proj 29.3 vs line 24.5 | -4.2 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Michael King MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE | STRONG | +4.3pp | proj 30.8 vs line 26.5 | 56 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Nick Lodolo MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | MED | -4.0pp | proj 24.5 vs line 28.5 | 21.7 | $0 | HIT | $+0.50 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Noah Schultz MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | MED | -3.4pp | proj 23.1 vs line 26.5 | 30.8 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Framber Valdez MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | MED | -3.3pp | proj 27.2 vs line 30.5 | 16.5 | $0 | HIT | $+0.50 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Zac Gallen MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | MED | -3.2pp | proj 22.3 vs line 25.5 | 36.5 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Nick Lodolo MLB prop · Pitching Outs | LESS | MED | -2.7pp | proj 13.8 vs line 16.5 | 17 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Andrew Painter MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -1.9pp | proj 3.1 vs line 5.0 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Nick Lodolo MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -1.6pp | proj 3.9 vs line 5.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Jake Irvin MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -1.4pp | proj 2.5 vs line 4.0 | 6 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Walbert Ureña MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -1.2pp | proj 3.8 vs line 5.0 | 4 | $0 | HIT | $+0.50 |
| 2026-05-18 | MLB | Ryan Weathers MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -1.0pp | proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | 7 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-05-18 | Tennis | Andres Andrade Tennis prop · Total Games Won | LESS | STRONG | +11.0pp | proj 10.2 vs line 11.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | Aaron Judge MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 2.8 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | Juan Soto MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | Yordan Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +69.0pp | proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | Michael Busch MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +69.0pp | proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | CIN MLB match winner | A | MED | -13.3pp | 51% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | BAL MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.8pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | TOR MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.5pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | SD MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.5pp | 48% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.82 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | H | MED | +7.5pp | 52% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.09 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | PHI MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | NYY MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.21 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | CIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.22 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | CHC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.29 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | TOR MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | Mullins+Schneider+Volpe+Cunningham TB/Pts power play Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play | MED | +0.0pp | — | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+110.00 | |
| 2026-05-17 | MLB | Soto + Walker bundle Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle | YES | MED | +0.0pp | — | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | WC | Sevilla vs Real Madrid Match winner | Real Madrid | ELITE | +37.6pp | 84% | ✓ cleared | $2 | HIT | $+2.34 |
| 2026-05-17 | WC | Sevilla vs Real Madrid Both teams to score: NO | BTTS No | ELITE | +35.5pp | — | ✓ cleared | $2 | HIT | $+2.76 |
| 2026-05-17 | WC | Pisa vs Napoli Both teams to score: NO | BTTS No | ELITE | +26.5pp | — | ✓ cleared | $2 | HIT | $+1.52 |
| 2026-05-17 | WC | Pisa vs Napoli Match winner | Napoli | ELITE | +13.7pp | — | ✓ cleared | $2 | HIT | $+0.71 |
| 2026-05-17 | WC | Atalanta vs Bologna Both teams to score: NO | BTTS No | ELITE | +12.2pp | — | ✓ cleared | $2 | HIT | $+2.52 |
| 2026-05-17 | WC | Udinese vs Cremonese Both teams to score: NO | BTTS No | ELITE | +13.5pp | — | ✓ cleared | $2 | HIT | $+1.94 |