Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

576

253 hit · 318 miss · 5 push

Hit rate

44.3%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-218.05

on $1644 staked

ROI

-13.3%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	3	0.0%	-30.0pp
40-60%	102	47.5%	-2.5pp
60-80%	15	46.2%	-23.8pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	576	44.3%	$-218.05	-13.3%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	443	44.5%	$-49.00	-11.1%
STRONG	9	22.2%	$-5.00	-55.6%
MED	124	45.4%	$-164.05	-13.8%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	449	43.9%	$-55.00	-12.2%
MLB total runs	71	48.5%	$-101.19	-14.3%
MLB match winner	48	41.7%	$-62.36	-13.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	7	42.9%	$-0.50	-11.1%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	457	44.0%	$-54.50	-12.0%
MLB-ML	119	45.6%	$-163.55	-13.7%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-09-08	MLB	Michael Busch MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.5pp	proj 2.0 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Troy Johnston MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Ezequiel Tovar MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Eli White MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Connor Norby MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Abimelec Ortiz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Trevor Larnach MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Cole Carrigg MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+96.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	TOR MLB match winner	H	MED	+13.3pp	51%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-08	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-11.9pp	50%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-08	MLB	NYM MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.9pp	58%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.37
2026-09-08	MLB	CIN MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.5pp	36%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-08	MLB	AZ MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-08	MLB	CIN MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-08	MLB	NYM MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.59
2026-09-08	MLB	TOR MLB total runs	U	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.06
2026-09-08	MLB	TB MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-07	MLB	Abimelec Ortiz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-07	MLB	Dylan Beavers MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-07	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-07	MLB	Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-07	MLB	Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-07	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-07	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-07	MLB	JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-07	MLB	Jacob Young MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+74.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-07	MLB	Leody Taveras MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+68.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-07	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.6pp	46%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-07	MLB	AZ MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	62%	—	$10	PUSH	$+0.00
2026-09-07	MLB	STL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	60%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.78
2026-09-07	MLB	TOR MLB total runs	U	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-07	MLB	CHC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-07	MLB	MIN MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.42
2026-09-06	MLB	Gavin Williams MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-3.0pp	proj 4.5 vs line 7.5	11	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-06	MLB	Kyle Harrison MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-2.0pp	proj 4.5 vs line 6.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-06	MLB	Bryan Woo MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.6pp	proj 5.0 vs line 6.5	9	$0	MISS	$-0.50
2026-09-06	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-06	MLB	Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-09-08 22:32:35 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.