Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

485

196 hit · 284 miss · 5 push

Hit rate

40.8%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-184.20

on $1230 staked

ROI

-15.0%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	3	33.3%	+3.3pp
40-60%	74	48.6%	-1.4pp
60-80%	7	50.0%	-20.0pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	485	40.8%	$-184.20	-15.0%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	388	39.7%	$-80.00	-20.6%
STRONG	9	37.5%	$-2.00	-22.2%
MED	88	46.4%	$-102.20	-12.3%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	388	39.4%	$-82.00	-21.1%
MLB total runs	48	62.2%	$+44.96	+9.4%
MLB match winner	35	28.6%	$-146.16	-41.8%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	8	57.1%	$+1.50	+23.1%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	4	33.3%	$-1.00	-28.6%
MLB prop · Pitching Outs	2	0.0%	$-1.50	-100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	402	39.5%	$-83.00	-20.8%
MLB-ML	83	47.5%	$-101.20	-12.2%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-10-04	MLB	Jake Bauers MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-10-03	MLB	Colson Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.4pp	proj 1.9 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-10-03	MLB	Austin Riley MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-10-03	MLB	Munetaka Murakami MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-10-03	MLB	Jake Bauers MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-10-03	MLB	Kyle Teel MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-10-03	MLB	Braden Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+95.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-30	MLB	Munetaka Murakami MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-30	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-30	MLB	Kyle Teel MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-30	MLB	Jarren Duran MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-30	MLB	Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+80.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Colson Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.4pp	proj 1.9 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Munetaka Murakami MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Trevor Story MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	J.T. Realmuto MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Jarren Duran MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Michael Conforto MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Anthony Volpe MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+100.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	George Lombard Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Nick Sogard MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Caleb Durbin MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+80.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-29	MLB	Samad Taylor MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+71.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Ezequiel Tovar MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Anthony Volpe MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+100.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Moisés Ballesteros MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+100.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	John Peck MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+80.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Thomas Saggese MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+80.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	John Rave MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+79.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Christian Moore MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Jonny DeLuca MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+72.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	8	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Esteury Ruiz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+72.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Andrew Knizner MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-27	MLB	Alika Williams MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+61.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-26	MLB	Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.6pp	proj 2.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-26	MLB	Mickey Moniak MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-26	MLB	Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-26	MLB	Agustín Ramírez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-26	MLB	Lazaro Montes MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-10-04 22:33:07 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.