For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 1 | 0.0% | -30.0pp |
| 40-60% | 94 | 41.3% | -8.7pp |
| 60-80% | 10 | 55.6% | -14.4pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 339 | 42.0% | $-268.06 | -20.9% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 229 | 42.4% | $-35.00 | -15.3% |
| STRONG | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.00 | -60.0% |
| MED | 105 | 42.2% | $-230.06 | -21.9% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 234 | 41.9% | $-38.00 | -16.2% |
| MLB total runs | 61 | 48.3% | $-90.74 | -14.9% |
| MLB match winner | 44 | 34.1% | $-139.32 | -31.7% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 234 | 41.9% | $-38.00 | -16.2% |
| MLB-ML | 105 | 42.2% | $-230.06 | -21.9% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Carlos Narváez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Bryan Torres MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | John Rave MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +79.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Jimmy Crooks MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | KC MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.9pp | 47% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.6pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.9pp | 43% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | COL MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.0pp | 47% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.43 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | TEX MLB match winner | H | MED | +6.9pp | 53% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.96 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | NYM MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.91 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | PIT MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.41 |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | PHI MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | — | $10 | PUSH | $+0.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.8pp | proj 2.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Esmerlyn Valdez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Heriberto Hernández MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jarren Duran MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +95.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Wade Meckler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Andruw Monasterio MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | KC MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.7pp | 41% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.3pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | H | MED | +4.7pp | 42% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+14.06 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | CIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.11 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.21 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | PHI MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | SEA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.8pp | proj 2.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Carlos Narváez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |