For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 2 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 96 | 44.7% | -5.3pp |
| 60-80% | 5 | 60.0% | -10.0pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 339 | 38.9% | $-198.64 | -15.7% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 230 | 36.1% | $-64.00 | -27.8% |
| STRONG | 6 | 16.7% | $-4.00 | -66.7% |
| MED | 103 | 46.5% | $-130.64 | -12.7% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 236 | 35.6% | $-68.00 | -28.8% |
| MLB total runs | 59 | 49.1% | $-71.59 | -12.1% |
| MLB match winner | 44 | 43.2% | $-59.05 | -13.4% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 236 | 35.6% | $-68.00 | -28.8% |
| MLB-ML | 103 | 46.5% | $-130.64 | -12.7% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Colson Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.4pp | proj 1.9 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Munetaka Murakami MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Jazz Chisholm Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Taylor Ward MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Max Kepler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Andrew Benintendi MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Jacob Young MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Leody Taveras MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +67.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +65.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | ATH MLB match winner | A | MED | -18.6pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.88 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | LAA MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.7pp | 52% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | H | MED | +7.0pp | 46% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.64 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | LAA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.27 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | ATL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.34 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | ATH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.72 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | CIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.86 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Gavin Sheets MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Taylor Ward MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Max Kepler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Andrés Giménez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | ATL MLB match winner | A | MED | -14.5pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | ATH MLB match winner | A | MED | -14.2pp | 44% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | H | MED | +11.4pp | 50% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | CLE MLB match winner | H | MED | +5.1pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | CHC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.30 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.40 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | ATL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | CIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |