For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 3 | 0.0% | -30.0pp |
| 40-60% | 90 | 51.7% | +1.7pp |
| 60-80% | 13 | 41.7% | -28.3pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 539 | 43.2% | $-161.00 | -10.9% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 417 | 42.2% | $-65.00 | -15.6% |
| STRONG | 12 | 33.3% | $-4.00 | -33.3% |
| MED | 110 | 48.1% | $-92.00 | -8.7% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 423 | 41.4% | $-73.00 | -17.3% |
| MLB total runs | 62 | 50.0% | $-75.00 | -12.1% |
| MLB match winner | 43 | 46.5% | $-16.50 | -3.8% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 9 | 55.6% | $+1.50 | +23.1% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 434 | 41.9% | $-69.50 | -16.1% |
| MLB-ML | 105 | 48.5% | $-91.50 | -8.7% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Max Fried MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | STRONG | -4.7pp | proj 27.8 vs line 32.5 | 30.8 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Hagen Smith MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | MORE | ELITE | +4.4pp | proj 6.9 vs line 2.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Ryan Feltner MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -1.2pp | proj 3.3 vs line 4.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +81.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Ezequiel Tovar MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Jorbit Vivas MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | George Springer MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +61.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | TOR MLB match winner | H | MED | +13.9pp | 52% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.15 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.3pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | CIN MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.4pp | 39% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | LAA MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.1pp | 42% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+13.61 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | WSH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.25 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | STL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.68 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.81 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | LAA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.08 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Michael Busch MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Troy Johnston MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Ezequiel Tovar MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Eli White MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Connor Norby MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Abimelec Ortiz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Trevor Larnach MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Cole Carrigg MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |