Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

348

184 hit · 159 miss · 5 push

Hit rate

53.6%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$+49.30

on $1056 staked

ROI

+4.7%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	1	0.0%	-10.0pp
20-40%	3	66.7%	+36.7pp
40-60%	106	47.1%	-2.9pp
60-80%	120	55.8%	-14.2pp
80-100%	3	66.7%	-23.3pp

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	295	56.6%	$+78.89	+8.2%
Tennis	30	40.0%	$-14.38	-34.2%
WC	23	34.8%	$-15.22	-33.1%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	65	43.1%	$-23.60	-24.1%
STRONG	30	67.9%	$+9.00	+29.0%
MED	236	53.8%	$+57.89	+6.4%
LOW	17	68.8%	$+6.00	+35.3%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
1st inning · YRFI	135	54.8%	$-20.22	-15.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	38	63.9%	$+9.00	+30.0%
MLB total runs	38	52.8%	$-29.55	-7.8%
MLB match winner	36	55.6%	$+9.74	+2.7%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	23	68.2%	$+8.00	+38.1%
Match winner	22	18.2%	$-29.33	-66.7%
Tennis prop · Total Games Won	13	53.8%	$+1.00	+7.7%
Both teams to score: NO	12	50.0%	$-0.27	-1.1%
MLB prop · Total Bases	10	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	6	50.0%	$+0.50	+9.1%
MLB prop · Pitching Outs	5	60.0%	$+1.50	+33.3%
Tennis prop · Total Games	4	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
1st inning · NRFI	2	50.0%	$-0.08	-3.8%
Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play	1	100.0%	$+110.00	+1100.0%
Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle	1	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Total goals over/under	1	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Tennis prop · Total Tie Breaks	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-NRFI	137	54.7%	$-20.30	-14.8%
MLB-PP	82	62.0%	$+19.00	+26.8%
MLB-ML	74	54.2%	$-19.81	-2.7%
WC-Kalshi	23	34.8%	$-15.22	-33.1%
Tennis-PP	18	55.6%	$+2.00	+11.1%
Tennis-Kalshi	12	16.7%	$-16.38	-68.2%
Real-Money	2	50.0%	$+100.00	+500.0%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-05-27	MLB	Connelly Early MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	MORE	STRONG	+2.0pp	proj 7.0 vs line 5.0	7	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	José Soriano MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.9pp	proj 4.1 vs line 6.0	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	Casey Mize MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.5pp	proj 4.0 vs line 5.5	6	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	Gavin Williams MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.3pp	proj 5.2 vs line 6.5	4	$0	HIT	$+0.50
2026-05-27	MLB	Jeffrey Springs MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.1pp	proj 3.4 vs line 4.5	7	$0	MISS	$-0.50
2026-05-27	MLB	Walker Buehler MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.1pp	proj 2.9 vs line 4.0	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	Cristopher Sánchez MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.1pp	proj 5.5 vs line 6.5	9	$0	MISS	$-0.50
2026-05-27	MLB	Jacob deGrom MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.1pp	proj 5.5 vs line 6.5	6	$0	HIT	$+0.50
2026-05-27	MLB	Steven Matz MLB prop · Walks Allowed	LESS	ELITE	-78.0pp	proj 0.7 vs line 1.5	2	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-13.3pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-27	MLB	MIA MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.0pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-27	MLB	AZ MLB match winner	A	MED	-6.5pp	58%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.32
2026-05-27	MLB	ATL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	—	$10	PUSH	$+0.00
2026-05-27	MLB	STL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-27	MLB	CIN MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-27	MLB	MIA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-27	MLB	LAA @ DET 1st inning · NRFI		MED	+0.0pp	52%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	ATL @ BOS 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	57%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	CIN @ NYM 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	58%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.72
2026-05-27	MLB	MIN @ CWS 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	62%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.61
2026-05-27	MLB	WSH @ CLE 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	62%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	PHI @ SD 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	63%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	MIA @ TOR 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	64%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.56
2026-05-27	MLB	COL @ LAD 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	64%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.56
2026-05-27	MLB	AZ @ SF 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	65%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	SEA @ ATH 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	66%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.52
2026-05-27	MLB	STL @ MIL 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	70%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	HOU @ TEX 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	70%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.43
2026-05-27	MLB	NYY @ KC 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	70%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-27	MLB	TB @ BAL 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	71%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.41
2026-05-27	MLB	CHC @ PIT 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	78%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.28
2026-05-26	MLB	Luis Severino MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-2.3pp	proj 3.2 vs line 5.5	0	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Cade Cavalli MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.7pp	proj 3.3 vs line 5.0	7	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Spencer Strider MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.6pp	proj 4.4 vs line 6.0	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Kyle Harrison MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.5pp	proj 4.5 vs line 6.0	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Randy Vásquez MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.5pp	proj 2.5 vs line 4.0	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Jack Kochanowicz MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.4pp	proj 2.6 vs line 4.0	4	$1	PUSH	$+0.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Griffin Jax MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	MORE	STRONG	+1.4pp	proj 6.4 vs line 5.0	3	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Jack Leiter MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.3pp	proj 4.2 vs line 5.5	4	$0	HIT	$+0.50
2026-05-26	MLB	Jordan Wicks MLB prop · Walks Allowed	LESS	ELITE	-1.2pp	proj 0.3 vs line 1.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Braxton Ashcraft MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.1pp	proj 4.4 vs line 5.5	5	$0	HIT	$+0.50
2026-05-26	MLB	Tyler Mahle MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.0pp	proj 3.5 vs line 4.5	3	$0	HIT	$+0.50
2026-05-26	MLB	Sean Burke MLB prop · Walks Allowed	MORE	STRONG	+70.0pp	proj 2.2 vs line 1.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Cam Schlittler MLB prop · Walks Allowed	MORE	STRONG	+62.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	COL MLB match winner	A	MED	-15.9pp	52%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-26	MLB	STL MLB match winner	A	MED	-11.3pp	45%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-26	MLB	NYY MLB match winner	H	MED	+8.7pp	45%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-26	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-7.7pp	52%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.37
2026-05-26	MLB	MIA MLB match winner	A	MED	-5.7pp	49%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-26	MLB	LAA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.86

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-05-27 22:45:46 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.