Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

392

170 hit · 219 miss · 3 push

Hit rate

43.7%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-174.78

on $1670 staked

ROI

-10.5%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	—	no data	—
40-60%	131	49.2%	-0.8pp
60-80%	11	45.5%	-24.5pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	392	43.7%	$-174.78	-10.5%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	240	40.8%	$-44.00	-18.3%
STRONG	10	40.0%	$-2.00	-20.0%
MED	142	48.9%	$-128.78	-9.1%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	250	40.8%	$-46.00	-18.4%
MLB total runs	80	48.1%	$-106.60	-13.3%
MLB match winner	62	50.0%	$-22.18	-3.6%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	250	40.8%	$-46.00	-18.4%
MLB-ML	142	48.9%	$-128.78	-9.1%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-07-09	MLB	Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-09	MLB	Logan O'Hoppe MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-09	MLB	Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-09	MLB	Pavin Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-09	MLB	Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	7	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-09	MLB	Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+65.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-09	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-09	MLB	MIL MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.4pp	52%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-09	MLB	AZ MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-09	MLB	LAA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.55
2026-07-09	MLB	COL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.59
2026-07-08	MLB	Bryce Eldridge MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.4pp	proj 1.9 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Willy Adames MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Pavin Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Tommy Troy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+95.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Josh Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Tyler Callihan MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+81.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	Gabriel Rincones Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+63.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-08	MLB	AZ MLB match winner	A	MED	-11.9pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-08	MLB	COL MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.0pp	41%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-08	MLB	MIL MLB match winner	H	MED	+8.9pp	52%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.37
2026-07-08	MLB	PHI MLB match winner	A	MED	-7.4pp	52%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-08	MLB	LAA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.17
2026-07-08	MLB	MIL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-08	MLB	PHI MLB total runs	U	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-08	MLB	SEA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-08	MLB	BOS MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Jazz Chisholm Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Victor Bericoto MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Lars Nootbaar MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+98.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Lawrence Butler MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+95.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Jorge Soler MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Wade Meckler MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	James Outman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-07	MLB	Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+65.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-07-10 10:42:41 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.