For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 1 | 0.0% | -10.0pp |
| 20-40% | 1 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 258 | 50.8% | +0.8pp |
| 60-80% | 200 | 54.0% | -16.0pp |
| 80-100% | 4 | 75.0% | -15.0pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 657 | 52.6% | $-53.24 | -2.2% |
| WC | 11 | 18.2% | $-11.92 | -54.2% |
| Tennis | 9 | 11.1% | $-15.00 | -88.2% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 150 | 40.7% | $-35.92 | -21.9% |
| STRONG | 63 | 57.9% | $+5.00 | +7.5% |
| MED | 464 | 54.1% | $-49.24 | -2.2% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st inning · YRFI | 234 | 53.8% | $-38.95 | -16.6% |
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 136 | 42.6% | $-20.00 | -14.7% |
| MLB total runs | 107 | 56.3% | $-10.45 | -1.0% |
| MLB match winner | 95 | 51.6% | $-0.76 | -0.1% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 55 | 68.1% | $+13.50 | +29.7% |
| Match winner | 15 | 6.7% | $-23.16 | -77.2% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 13 | 69.2% | $+5.50 | +44.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 13 | 38.5% | $-2.50 | -21.7% |
| Both teams to score: NO | 4 | 25.0% | $-4.76 | -59.5% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 3 | 66.7% | $+0.92 | +30.8% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 1 | 0.0% | $-0.50 | -100.0% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games Won | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-NRFI | 237 | 54.0% | $-38.03 | -16.0% |
| MLB-PP | 218 | 49.5% | $-4.00 | -1.9% |
| MLB-ML | 202 | 54.0% | $-11.21 | -0.6% |
| WC-Kalshi | 11 | 18.2% | $-11.92 | -54.2% |
| Tennis-Kalshi | 8 | 0.0% | $-16.00 | -100.0% |
| Tennis-PP | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | A.J. Ewing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Blaze Alexander MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +88.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -13.7pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.80 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | BAL MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.5pp | 43% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+13.15 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | NYM MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.3pp | 46% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.4pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | BAL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | WSH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | SD MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.32 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.49 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Austin Riley MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Tyler Stephenson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Dominic Smith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | Blaze Alexander MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +88.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | Garrett Mitchell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +76.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | Juan Soto MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +75.0pp | proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | 8 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Juan Soto MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +75.0pp | proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Christian Vázquez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Tristan Gray MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +81.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |