For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 1 | 0.0% | -10.0pp |
| 20-40% | 1 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 253 | 50.6% | +0.6pp |
| 60-80% | 205 | 54.1% | -15.9pp |
| 80-100% | 4 | 75.0% | -15.0pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 647 | 52.3% | $-55.84 | -2.3% |
| WC | 11 | 18.2% | $-11.92 | -54.2% |
| Tennis | 10 | 10.0% | $-17.00 | -89.5% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 142 | 38.0% | $-42.92 | -27.3% |
| STRONG | 63 | 57.9% | $+5.00 | +7.5% |
| MED | 463 | 54.3% | $-46.84 | -2.1% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st inning · YRFI | 241 | 53.9% | $-39.79 | -16.5% |
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 127 | 40.2% | $-25.00 | -19.7% |
| MLB total runs | 103 | 56.6% | $-7.26 | -0.7% |
| MLB match winner | 91 | 51.6% | $-0.71 | -0.1% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 55 | 68.1% | $+13.50 | +29.7% |
| Match winner | 16 | 6.2% | $-25.16 | -78.6% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 13 | 69.2% | $+5.50 | +44.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 13 | 38.5% | $-2.50 | -21.7% |
| Both teams to score: NO | 4 | 25.0% | $-4.76 | -59.5% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 3 | 66.7% | $+0.92 | +30.8% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 1 | 0.0% | $-0.50 | -100.0% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games Won | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-NRFI | 244 | 54.1% | $-38.87 | -15.9% |
| MLB-PP | 209 | 48.3% | $-9.00 | -4.6% |
| MLB-ML | 194 | 54.2% | $-7.97 | -0.4% |
| WC-Kalshi | 11 | 18.2% | $-11.92 | -54.2% |
| Tennis-Kalshi | 9 | 0.0% | $-18.00 | -100.0% |
| Tennis-PP | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Austin Riley MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Tyler Stephenson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Dominic Smith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | Blaze Alexander MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +88.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | Garrett Mitchell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +76.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | Juan Soto MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +75.0pp | proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | 8 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Juan Soto MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +75.0pp | proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Christian Vázquez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Tristan Gray MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +81.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Christian Vázquez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Jake Bauers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +81.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Joey Ortiz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +71.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Owen Caissie MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +65.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.5pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.11 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | COL MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.0pp | 47% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.09 |