Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

543

239 hit · 302 miss · 2 push

Hit rate

44.2%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-274.88

on $1604 staked

ROI

-17.1%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	1	0.0%	-30.0pp
40-60%	107	44.3%	-5.7pp
60-80%	11	40.0%	-30.0pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	543	44.2%	$-274.88	-17.1%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	412	45.1%	$-40.00	-9.7%
STRONG	11	18.2%	$-7.00	-63.6%
MED	120	43.2%	$-227.88	-19.3%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	422	44.3%	$-48.00	-11.4%
MLB total runs	69	47.8%	$-110.27	-16.0%
MLB match winner	49	36.7%	$-117.61	-24.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	2	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	425	44.5%	$-47.00	-11.1%
MLB-ML	118	43.1%	$-227.88	-19.3%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-09-02	MLB	Michael Busch MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.5pp	proj 2.0 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Colson Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.4pp	proj 1.9 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Joshua Báez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Justin Foscue MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Spencer Jones MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Moisés Ballesteros MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+100.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Drew Cavanaugh MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Josh Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+85.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Brayan Rocchio MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Christian Moore MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Travis Bazzana MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+75.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+74.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	José Caballero MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-02	MLB	NYM MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.6pp	51%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.64
2026-09-02	MLB	ATL MLB match winner	H	MED	+8.4pp	52%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-02	MLB	CWS MLB match winner	A	MED	-8.2pp	53%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-02	MLB	SF MLB match winner	A	MED	-8.1pp	50%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+10.02
2026-09-02	MLB	SD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.88
2026-09-02	MLB	PHI MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-02	MLB	CWS MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-02	MLB	NYY MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.66
2026-09-01	MLB	Colt Keith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Justin Foscue MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Kazuma Okamoto MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Joc Pederson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+95.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Josh Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	Pete Alonso MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+61.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-01	MLB	SD MLB match winner	H	MED	+10.8pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.35
2026-09-01	MLB	ATH MLB match winner	A	MED	-8.4pp	44%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-01	MLB	ATL MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.1pp	45%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+12.36
2026-09-01	MLB	SEA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.02
2026-09-01	MLB	NYY MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.81
2026-09-01	MLB	SD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-09-02 22:32:41 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.