For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 2 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 88 | 41.9% | -8.1pp |
| 60-80% | 5 | 60.0% | -10.0pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 311 | 37.9% | $-226.35 | -19.4% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 210 | 35.7% | $-60.00 | -28.6% |
| STRONG | 6 | 16.7% | $-4.00 | -66.7% |
| MED | 95 | 44.1% | $-162.35 | -17.1% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 216 | 35.2% | $-64.00 | -29.6% |
| MLB total runs | 54 | 46.2% | $-91.78 | -17.0% |
| MLB match winner | 41 | 41.5% | $-70.57 | -17.2% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 216 | 35.2% | $-64.00 | -29.6% |
| MLB-ML | 95 | 44.1% | $-162.35 | -17.1% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Gavin Sheets MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Taylor Ward MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Max Kepler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Andrés Giménez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | ATL MLB match winner | A | MED | -14.5pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | ATH MLB match winner | A | MED | -14.2pp | 44% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | H | MED | +11.4pp | 50% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | CLE MLB match winner | H | MED | +5.1pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | CHC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.30 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.40 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | ATL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | MLB | CIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | Luis Lara MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +88.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | Patrick Bailey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | Pete Alonso MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +61.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -13.0pp | 41% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | LAA MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.0pp | 47% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.10 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.2pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | LAA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | WSH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.05 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | CWS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.06 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | DET MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.08 |
| 2026-08-06 | MLB | PIT MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Jake Bauers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Taylor Ward MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 9 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Cooper Pratt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Andrés Giménez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -13.8pp | 51% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.53 |