For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 1 | 0.0% | -10.0pp |
| 20-40% | 2 | 50.0% | +20.0pp |
| 40-60% | 82 | 48.1% | -1.9pp |
| 60-80% | 96 | 55.2% | -14.8pp |
| 80-100% | 3 | 66.7% | -23.3pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 226 | 56.5% | $+112.74 | +15.0% |
| Tennis | 30 | 40.0% | $-14.38 | -34.2% |
| WC | 23 | 34.8% | $-15.22 | -33.1% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 63 | 42.9% | $-23.60 | -24.6% |
| STRONG | 17 | 68.8% | $+5.00 | +27.8% |
| MED | 182 | 53.6% | $+95.74 | +13.6% |
| LOW | 17 | 68.8% | $+6.00 | +35.3% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st inning · YRFI | 106 | 53.8% | $-17.12 | -16.2% |
| MLB total runs | 29 | 50.0% | $-37.61 | -13.0% |
| MLB match winner | 28 | 64.3% | $+53.05 | +18.9% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 23 | 68.2% | $+8.00 | +38.1% |
| Match winner | 22 | 18.2% | $-29.33 | -66.7% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 20 | 57.9% | $+3.50 | +22.6% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games Won | 13 | 53.8% | $+1.00 | +7.7% |
| Both teams to score: NO | 12 | 50.0% | $-0.27 | -1.1% |
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 10 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 5 | 60.0% | $+1.50 | +33.3% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games | 4 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 2 | 50.0% | $+0.50 | +33.3% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 1 | 100.0% | $+0.92 | +92.3% |
| Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play | 1 | 100.0% | $+110.00 | +1100.0% |
| Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle | 1 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| Total goals over/under | 1 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Tennis prop · Total Tie Breaks | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-NRFI | 107 | 54.2% | $-16.20 | -15.1% |
| MLB-PP | 60 | 60.3% | $+13.50 | +25.7% |
| MLB-ML | 57 | 57.1% | $+15.44 | +2.7% |
| WC-Kalshi | 23 | 34.8% | $-15.22 | -33.1% |
| Tennis-PP | 18 | 55.6% | $+2.00 | +11.1% |
| Tennis-Kalshi | 12 | 16.7% | $-16.38 | -68.2% |
| Real-Money | 2 | 50.0% | $+100.00 | +500.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | COL MLB match winner | A | MED | -20.8pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | NYY MLB match winner | A | MED | -14.6pp | 69% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+4.56 |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.7pp | 45% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | CIN MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.6pp | 49% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.49 |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.5pp | 46% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.69 |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | WSH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.66 |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | NYY MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | MIA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.99 |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | CIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.04 |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | CHC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | NYY @ KC 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | PHI @ SD 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.67 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | TB @ BAL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | CHC @ PIT 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 64% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | MIA @ TOR 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 64% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.56 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | MIN @ CWS 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 66% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.52 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | AZ @ SF 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 66% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | HOU @ TEX 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 66% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.52 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | CIN @ NYM 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 67% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | STL @ MIL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 67% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.49 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | SEA @ ATH 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 68% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | WSH @ CLE 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 75% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.33 | |
| 2026-05-25 | MLB | COL @ LAD 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 77% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-25 | Tennis | Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe Match winner | STRONG | +14.4pp | 44% | ✗ missed | $2 | MISS | $-2.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.0pp | 49% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.58 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +10.7pp | 67% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+5.03 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | LAD MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.9pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | COL MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.8pp | 47% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.5pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.98 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | DET MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | DET MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | MIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.25 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | NYM MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | ATH @ SD 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | MIN @ BOS 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.85 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | SEA @ KC 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.82 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | NYM @ MIA 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | HOU @ CHC 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | TB @ NYY 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 63% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | PIT @ TOR 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 63% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.59 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | DET @ BAL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 64% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.56 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | CLE @ PHI 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 65% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | WSH @ ATL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 68% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | DET @ BAL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 69% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.45 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | CWS @ SF 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 70% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.43 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | TEX @ LAA 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 71% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | COL @ AZ 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 72% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.39 | |
| 2026-05-24 | MLB | LAD @ MIL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 75% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-05-24 | WC | Lecce vs Genoa Match winner | Genoa | ELITE | +20.9pp | 41% | ✗ missed | $2 | MISS | $-2.00 |