For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 1 | 0.0% | -10.0pp |
| 20-40% | 1 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 260 | 50.6% | +0.6pp |
| 60-80% | 191 | 53.9% | -16.1pp |
| 80-100% | 4 | 75.0% | -15.0pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 662 | 51.9% | $-73.40 | -2.9% |
| WC | 11 | 18.2% | $-11.92 | -54.2% |
| Tennis | 8 | 12.5% | $-13.00 | -86.7% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 161 | 39.8% | $-40.92 | -23.4% |
| STRONG | 62 | 58.9% | $+7.00 | +10.8% |
| MED | 458 | 53.9% | $-64.40 | -2.8% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st inning · YRFI | 221 | 53.8% | $-36.67 | -16.6% |
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 147 | 41.5% | $-25.00 | -17.0% |
| MLB total runs | 112 | 56.1% | $-13.89 | -1.2% |
| MLB match winner | 98 | 51.0% | $-13.84 | -1.4% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 55 | 68.1% | $+13.50 | +29.7% |
| Match winner | 14 | 7.1% | $-21.16 | -75.6% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 13 | 69.2% | $+5.50 | +44.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 13 | 38.5% | $-2.50 | -21.7% |
| Both teams to score: NO | 4 | 25.0% | $-4.76 | -59.5% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 2 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 1 | 0.0% | $-0.50 | -100.0% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games Won | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 229 | 48.4% | $-9.00 | -4.1% |
| MLB-NRFI | 223 | 53.8% | $-36.67 | -16.4% |
| MLB-ML | 210 | 53.7% | $-27.73 | -1.3% |
| WC-Kalshi | 11 | 18.2% | $-11.92 | -54.2% |
| Tennis-Kalshi | 7 | 0.0% | $-14.00 | -100.0% |
| Tennis-PP | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Yohendrick Piñango MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 6 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Marcelo Mayer MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +79.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Esteury Ruiz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | NYM MLB match winner | A | MED | -15.7pp | 51% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -13.9pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.1pp | 62% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.24 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | SF MLB match winner | H | MED | +5.2pp | 49% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.52 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | WSH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | STL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.10 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | NYM MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | — | $10 | PUSH | $+0.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | LAA MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | CWS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.46 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | A.J. Ewing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Blaze Alexander MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +88.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -13.7pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.80 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | BAL MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.5pp | 43% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+13.15 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | NYM MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.3pp | 46% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.4pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | BAL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | WSH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | SD MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.32 |
| 2026-06-20 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.49 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Austin Riley MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Tyler Stephenson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Dominic Smith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |