Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

586

254 hit · 327 miss · 5 push

Hit rate

43.7%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-142.39

on $1572 staked

ROI

-9.1%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	4	25.0%	-5.0pp
40-60%	98	51.0%	+1.0pp
60-80%	10	66.7%	-3.3pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	586	43.7%	$-142.39	-9.1%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	455	42.6%	$-67.00	-14.7%
STRONG	14	30.8%	$-5.00	-35.7%
MED	117	49.6%	$-70.39	-6.4%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	459	42.0%	$-73.00	-15.9%
MLB total runs	64	62.3%	$+59.59	+9.3%
MLB match winner	46	34.8%	$-128.98	-28.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	10	55.6%	$+1.50	+20.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	4	33.3%	$-1.00	-28.6%
MLB prop · Pitching Outs	2	0.0%	$-1.50	-100.0%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	476	42.2%	$-73.00	-15.4%
MLB-ML	110	50.5%	$-69.39	-6.3%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-09-19	MLB	Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Jarren Duran MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Nick Sogard MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Nathaniel Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+88.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Turner Hill MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Josh Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+85.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+80.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Christian Moore MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-19	MLB	Samad Taylor MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+71.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Jake Burger MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Wyatt Langford MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Carlos Cortes MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Michael Conforto MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Juan Brito MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Turner Hill MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Josh Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+85.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	John Rave MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+79.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-18	MLB	Jonah Heim MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-17	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-17	MLB	Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-17	MLB	Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+95.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-17	MLB	Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-17	MLB	Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-17	MLB	Jonah Heim MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-17	MLB	Christian Moore MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-17	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-16	MLB	Colson Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.4pp	proj 1.9 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-16	MLB	Rafael Flores Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-16	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-09-20 11:33:40 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.