Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

405

173 hit · 228 miss · 4 push

Hit rate

43.1%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-200.28

on $1728 staked

ROI

-11.6%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	—	no data	—
40-60%	136	49.2%	-0.8pp
60-80%	34	44.1%	-25.9pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	405	43.1%	$-200.28	-11.6%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	226	39.8%	$-46.00	-20.4%
STRONG	9	33.3%	$-3.00	-33.3%
MED	170	48.2%	$-151.28	-10.1%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	235	39.6%	$-49.00	-20.9%
MLB total runs	82	46.2%	$-141.85	-17.3%
MLB match winner	65	52.3%	$-1.72	-0.3%
1st inning · YRFI	23	43.5%	$-7.71	-33.5%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	235	39.6%	$-49.00	-20.9%
MLB-ML	147	49.0%	$-143.57	-9.8%
MLB-NRFI	23	43.5%	$-7.71	-33.5%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-07-06	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Pavin Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	6	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	José Caballero MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	8	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+61.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-06	MLB	COL MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.2pp	46%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-06	MLB	MIL MLB match winner	H	MED	+7.9pp	57%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-06	MLB	TOR MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.2pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.94
2026-07-06	MLB	PHI MLB match winner	H	MED	+4.7pp	41%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+14.30
2026-07-06	MLB	HOU MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.96
2026-07-06	MLB	MIL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-06	MLB	COL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.55
2026-07-05	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 2.6 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-05	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-05	MLB	CWS MLB match winner	A	MED	-15.2pp	60%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.72
2026-07-05	MLB	STL MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.3pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-05	MLB	BAL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-05	MLB	DET MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.96
2026-06-29	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Mark Vientos MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Pavin Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	A.J. Ewing MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Tommy Troy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Pavin Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Lawrence Butler MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+95.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Hao-Yu Lee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Matt Shaw MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+61.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	CHC MLB match winner	A	MED	-13.4pp	51%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.78
2026-06-28	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.9pp	48%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+10.86
2026-06-28	MLB	TEX MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.6pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.96
2026-06-28	MLB	KC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.33
2026-06-28	MLB	ATH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-28	MLB	WSH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.32
2026-06-28	MLB	LAD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-28	MLB	CHC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Brice Matthews MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-07-07 10:43:21 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.