For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 1 | 0.0% | -30.0pp |
| 40-60% | 86 | 40.0% | -10.0pp |
| 60-80% | 8 | 71.4% | +1.4pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 322 | 41.6% | $-253.77 | -21.6% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 222 | 41.9% | $-36.00 | -16.2% |
| STRONG | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.00 | -60.0% |
| MED | 95 | 41.9% | $-214.77 | -22.6% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 227 | 41.4% | $-39.00 | -17.2% |
| MLB total runs | 56 | 48.1% | $-85.06 | -15.2% |
| MLB match winner | 39 | 33.3% | $-129.71 | -33.3% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 227 | 41.4% | $-39.00 | -17.2% |
| MLB-ML | 95 | 41.9% | $-214.77 | -22.6% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.8pp | proj 2.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Esmerlyn Valdez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Heriberto Hernández MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jarren Duran MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +95.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Wade Meckler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Andruw Monasterio MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | KC MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.7pp | 41% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.3pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | H | MED | +4.7pp | 42% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+14.06 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | CIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.11 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.21 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | PHI MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | SEA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.8pp | proj 2.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Carlos Narváez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Nick Loftin MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Andrés Giménez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | COL MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.1pp | 45% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | KC MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.6pp | 37% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | PHI MLB match winner | H | MED | +6.3pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | PHI MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.62 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | TB MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.27 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Trevor Larnach MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |