Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

314

117 hit · 195 miss · 2 push

Hit rate

37.5%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-226.51

on $1169 staked

ROI

-19.4%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	2	100.0%	+70.0pp
40-60%	88	41.9%	-8.1pp
60-80%	5	60.0%	-10.0pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	314	37.5%	$-226.51	-19.4%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	213	35.2%	$-63.00	-29.6%
STRONG	6	16.7%	$-4.00	-66.7%
MED	95	44.1%	$-159.51	-16.8%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	219	34.7%	$-67.00	-30.6%
MLB total runs	54	44.2%	$-108.31	-20.1%
MLB match winner	41	43.9%	$-51.20	-12.5%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	219	34.7%	$-67.00	-30.6%
MLB-ML	95	44.1%	$-159.51	-16.8%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-08-06	MLB	Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-06	MLB	Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-06	MLB	Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-06	MLB	Luis Lara MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+88.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-06	MLB	Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-06	MLB	Patrick Bailey MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-06	MLB	Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+65.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-06	MLB	Pete Alonso MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+61.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-06	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-13.0pp	41%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-06	MLB	LAA MLB match winner	A	MED	-11.0pp	47%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+11.10
2026-08-06	MLB	CWS MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.2pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-06	MLB	LAA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	60%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-06	MLB	WSH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.05
2026-08-06	MLB	CWS MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.06
2026-08-06	MLB	DET MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.08
2026-08-06	MLB	PIT MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Jake Bauers MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Taylor Ward MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	9	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Cooper Pratt MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+85.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Andrés Giménez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+65.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+63.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-05	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-13.8pp	51%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.53
2026-08-05	MLB	DET MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.4pp	53%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-05	MLB	CWS MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.1pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-05	MLB	TB MLB match winner	H	MED	+5.7pp	45%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-05	MLB	ATH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	62%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-05	MLB	LAD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	61%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.46
2026-08-05	MLB	CWS MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-05	MLB	TOR MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.34
2026-08-05	MLB	MIA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-04	MLB	Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	7	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-04	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-04	MLB	Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-04	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-04	MLB	Cooper Pratt MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-04	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-04	MLB	Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-04	MLB	Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+74.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-08-04	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-04	MLB	Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+65.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-08-04	MLB	STL MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.3pp	49%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-04	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-11.5pp	43%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-08-04	MLB	TB MLB match winner	H	MED	+9.4pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-08-07 10:55:53 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.