Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

301

161 hit · 136 miss · 4 push

Hit rate

54.2%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$+105.08

on $939 staked

ROI

+11.2%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	1	0.0%	-10.0pp
20-40%	3	66.7%	+36.7pp
40-60%	91	50.0%	0.0pp
60-80%	96	55.2%	-14.8pp
80-100%	3	66.7%	-23.3pp

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	248	57.8%	$+134.67	+15.8%
Tennis	30	40.0%	$-14.38	-34.2%
WC	23	34.8%	$-15.22	-33.1%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	64	43.8%	$-22.60	-23.3%
STRONG	26	66.7%	$+7.00	+25.9%
MED	194	54.9%	$+114.67	+14.4%
LOW	17	68.8%	$+6.00	+35.3%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
1st inning · YRFI	106	53.8%	$-17.12	-16.2%
MLB total runs	34	57.6%	$+0.45	+0.1%
MLB match winner	32	59.4%	$+32.42	+10.1%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	30	64.3%	$+7.00	+29.2%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	23	68.2%	$+8.00	+38.1%
Match winner	22	18.2%	$-29.33	-66.7%
Tennis prop · Total Games Won	13	53.8%	$+1.00	+7.7%
Both teams to score: NO	12	50.0%	$-0.27	-1.1%
MLB prop · Total Bases	10	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
MLB prop · Pitching Outs	5	60.0%	$+1.50	+33.3%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	5	60.0%	$+1.50	+33.3%
Tennis prop · Total Games	4	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
1st inning · NRFI	1	100.0%	$+0.92	+92.3%
Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play	1	100.0%	$+110.00	+1100.0%
Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle	1	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Total goals over/under	1	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Tennis prop · Total Tie Breaks	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-NRFI	107	54.2%	$-16.20	-15.1%
MLB-PP	73	62.9%	$+18.00	+28.1%
MLB-ML	66	58.5%	$+32.87	+5.0%
WC-Kalshi	23	34.8%	$-15.22	-33.1%
Tennis-PP	18	55.6%	$+2.00	+11.1%
Tennis-Kalshi	12	16.7%	$-16.38	-68.2%
Real-Money	2	50.0%	$+100.00	+500.0%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-05-26	MLB	Luis Severino MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-2.3pp	proj 3.2 vs line 5.5	0	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Cade Cavalli MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.7pp	proj 3.3 vs line 5.0	7	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Spencer Strider MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.6pp	proj 4.4 vs line 6.0	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Kyle Harrison MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.5pp	proj 4.5 vs line 6.0	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Randy Vásquez MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.5pp	proj 2.5 vs line 4.0	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Jack Kochanowicz MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.4pp	proj 2.6 vs line 4.0	4	$1	PUSH	$+0.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Griffin Jax MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	MORE	STRONG	+1.4pp	proj 6.4 vs line 5.0	3	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Jack Leiter MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.3pp	proj 4.2 vs line 5.5	4	$0	HIT	$+0.50
2026-05-26	MLB	Jordan Wicks MLB prop · Walks Allowed	LESS	ELITE	-1.2pp	proj 0.3 vs line 1.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Braxton Ashcraft MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.1pp	proj 4.4 vs line 5.5	5	$0	HIT	$+0.50
2026-05-26	MLB	Tyler Mahle MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.0pp	proj 3.5 vs line 4.5	3	$0	HIT	$+0.50
2026-05-26	MLB	Sean Burke MLB prop · Walks Allowed	MORE	STRONG	+70.0pp	proj 2.2 vs line 1.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	Cam Schlittler MLB prop · Walks Allowed	MORE	STRONG	+62.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-26	MLB	STL MLB match winner	A	MED	-11.3pp	45%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-26	MLB	NYY MLB match winner	H	MED	+8.7pp	45%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-26	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-7.7pp	52%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.37
2026-05-26	MLB	MIA MLB match winner	A	MED	-5.7pp	49%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-26	MLB	LAA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.86
2026-05-26	MLB	ATL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.73
2026-05-26	MLB	WSH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.81
2026-05-26	MLB	CIN MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.82
2026-05-26	MLB	MIA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.84
2026-05-25	MLB	COL MLB match winner	A	MED	-20.8pp	49%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-25	MLB	NYY MLB match winner	A	MED	-14.6pp	69%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+4.56
2026-05-25	MLB	STL MLB match winner	A	MED	-11.7pp	45%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-25	MLB	CIN MLB match winner	A	MED	-7.6pp	49%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+10.49
2026-05-25	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-7.5pp	46%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+11.69
2026-05-25	MLB	WSH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.66
2026-05-25	MLB	NYY MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-25	MLB	MIA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.99
2026-05-25	MLB	CIN MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.04
2026-05-25	MLB	CHC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-25	MLB	NYY @ KC 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-25	MLB	PHI @ SD 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	60%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.67
2026-05-25	MLB	TB @ BAL 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	62%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-25	MLB	CHC @ PIT 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	64%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-25	MLB	MIA @ TOR 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	64%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.56
2026-05-25	MLB	MIN @ CWS 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	66%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.52
2026-05-25	MLB	AZ @ SF 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	66%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-25	MLB	HOU @ TEX 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	66%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.52
2026-05-25	MLB	CIN @ NYM 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	67%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-25	MLB	STL @ MIL 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	67%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.49
2026-05-25	MLB	SEA @ ATH 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	68%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-25	MLB	WSH @ CLE 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	75%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.33
2026-05-25	MLB	COL @ LAD 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	77%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-25	Tennis	Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe Match winner		STRONG	+14.4pp	44%	✗ missed	$2	MISS	$-2.00
2026-05-24	MLB	HOU MLB match winner	A	MED	-11.0pp	49%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+10.58
2026-05-24	MLB	TB MLB match winner	H	MED	+10.7pp	67%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+5.03
2026-05-24	MLB	LAD MLB match winner	H	MED	+9.9pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-24	MLB	COL MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.8pp	47%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-05-26 21:46:00 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.