For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 1 | 0.0% | -10.0pp |
| 20-40% | 4 | 50.0% | +20.0pp |
| 40-60% | 282 | 49.6% | -0.4pp |
| 60-80% | 242 | 55.0% | -15.0pp |
| 80-100% | 7 | 71.4% | -18.6pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 716 | 51.9% | $+24.59 | +1.0% |
| Tennis | 43 | 32.6% | $-31.06 | -45.7% |
| WC | 28 | 32.1% | $-18.38 | -32.8% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 176 | 35.2% | $-69.44 | -31.3% |
| STRONG | 80 | 58.9% | $+7.00 | +8.1% |
| MED | 531 | 53.9% | $+37.59 | +1.6% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st inning · YRFI | 285 | 54.7% | $-43.99 | -15.4% |
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 116 | 35.3% | $-34.00 | -29.3% |
| MLB total runs | 108 | 56.7% | $-5.54 | -0.5% |
| MLB match winner | 96 | 51.0% | $-10.80 | -1.1% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 69 | 63.3% | $+14.50 | +25.7% |
| Match winner | 40 | 17.5% | $-49.17 | -61.5% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 20 | 45.0% | $-1.50 | -9.1% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 14 | 64.3% | $+5.00 | +38.5% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games Won | 13 | 53.8% | $+1.00 | +7.7% |
| Both teams to score: NO | 12 | 50.0% | $-0.27 | -1.1% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games | 4 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 3 | 33.3% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 3 | 66.7% | $+0.92 | +30.8% |
| Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play | 1 | 100.0% | $+110.00 | +1100.0% |
| Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle | 1 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| Total goals over/under | 1 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Tennis prop · Total Tie Breaks | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-NRFI | 288 | 54.9% | $-43.07 | -15.0% |
| MLB-PP | 222 | 46.0% | $-16.00 | -7.8% |
| MLB-ML | 204 | 54.0% | $-16.34 | -0.8% |
| WC-Kalshi | 28 | 32.1% | $-18.38 | -32.8% |
| Tennis-Kalshi | 25 | 16.0% | $-33.06 | -66.1% |
| Tennis-PP | 18 | 55.6% | $+2.00 | +11.1% |
| Real-Money | 2 | 50.0% | $+100.00 | +500.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Juan Soto MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +75.0pp | proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | MLB | Christian Vázquez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Tristan Gray MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +81.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Christian Vázquez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Jake Bauers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +81.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Joey Ortiz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +71.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Owen Caissie MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +65.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.5pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.11 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | COL MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.0pp | 47% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.09 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | LAD MLB match winner | H | MED | +7.4pp | 44% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+12.49 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 65% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | AZ MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 64% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | ATL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.08 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | TB MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.87 |
| 2026-06-14 | MLB | SEA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.09 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | Brayan Rocchio MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +79.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | Shea Langeliers MLB prop · Total Bases | LESS | STRONG | -79.0pp | proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | Garrett Mitchell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +76.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |