For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 3 | 0.0% | -30.0pp |
| 40-60% | 97 | 51.1% | +1.1pp |
| 60-80% | 14 | 38.5% | -31.5pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 567 | 43.7% | $-178.62 | -11.3% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 437 | 43.0% | $-61.00 | -14.0% |
| STRONG | 12 | 33.3% | $-4.00 | -33.3% |
| MED | 118 | 47.4% | $-113.62 | -10.0% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 443 | 42.2% | $-69.00 | -15.6% |
| MLB total runs | 67 | 49.2% | $-90.68 | -13.5% |
| MLB match winner | 46 | 45.7% | $-22.44 | -4.9% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 9 | 55.6% | $+1.50 | +23.1% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 454 | 42.7% | $-65.50 | -14.5% |
| MLB-ML | 113 | 47.7% | $-113.12 | -10.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Max Fried MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | STRONG | -4.7pp | proj 27.8 vs line 32.5 | 30.8 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Hagen Smith MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | MORE | ELITE | +4.4pp | proj 6.9 vs line 2.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Ryan Feltner MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -1.2pp | proj 3.3 vs line 4.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | MLB | Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +81.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Ezequiel Tovar MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | Jorbit Vivas MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | George Springer MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +61.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | TOR MLB match winner | H | MED | +13.9pp | 52% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.15 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.3pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | CIN MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.4pp | 39% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | LAA MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.1pp | 42% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+13.61 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | WSH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.25 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | STL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.68 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.81 |
| 2026-09-09 | MLB | LAA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.08 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Michael Busch MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Troy Johnston MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Ezequiel Tovar MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Eli White MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Connor Norby MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Abimelec Ortiz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Trevor Larnach MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Cole Carrigg MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | MLB | Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |