Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

402

215 hit · 179 miss · 8 push

Hit rate

54.6%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$+58.78

on $1270 staked

ROI

+4.6%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	1	0.0%	-10.0pp
20-40%	3	66.7%	+36.7pp
40-60%	131	49.6%	-0.4pp
60-80%	134	56.0%	-14.0pp
80-100%	5	60.0%	-30.0pp

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	349	57.2%	$+88.38	+7.5%
Tennis	30	40.0%	$-14.38	-34.2%
WC	23	34.8%	$-15.22	-33.1%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	65	43.1%	$-23.60	-24.1%
STRONG	40	69.4%	$+13.00	+31.7%
MED	280	54.5%	$+63.38	+5.7%
LOW	17	68.8%	$+6.00	+35.3%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
1st inning · YRFI	156	55.8%	$-20.14	-12.9%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	50	66.7%	$+13.50	+33.8%
MLB total runs	49	53.2%	$-33.07	-6.7%
MLB match winner	43	55.8%	$+18.66	+4.3%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	23	68.2%	$+8.00	+38.1%
Match winner	22	18.2%	$-29.33	-66.7%
Tennis prop · Total Games Won	13	53.8%	$+1.00	+7.7%
Both teams to score: NO	12	50.0%	$-0.27	-1.1%
MLB prop · Total Bases	10	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	9	44.4%	$+0.00	+0.0%
MLB prop · Pitching Outs	5	60.0%	$+1.50	+33.3%
Tennis prop · Total Games	4	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
1st inning · NRFI	2	50.0%	$-0.08	-3.8%
Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play	1	100.0%	$+110.00	+1100.0%
Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle	1	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Total goals over/under	1	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Tennis prop · Total Tie Breaks	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-NRFI	158	55.7%	$-20.21	-12.8%
MLB-PP	97	62.6%	$+23.00	+27.5%
MLB-ML	92	54.4%	$-14.41	-1.6%
WC-Kalshi	23	34.8%	$-15.22	-33.1%
Tennis-PP	18	55.6%	$+2.00	+11.1%
Tennis-Kalshi	12	16.7%	$-16.38	-68.2%
Real-Money	2	50.0%	$+100.00	+500.0%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-05-29	MLB	Carlos Rodón MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-2.3pp	proj 3.7 vs line 6.0	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-29	MLB	Luis Severino MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.8pp	proj 3.7 vs line 5.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-29	MLB	Taj Bradley MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.6pp	proj 4.4 vs line 6.0	6	$1	PUSH	$+0.00
2026-05-29	MLB	Zac Gallen MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.3pp	proj 3.7 vs line 5.0	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-29	MLB	Erick Fedde MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.3pp	proj 2.2 vs line 3.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-29	MLB	Chris Paddack MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.1pp	proj 2.4 vs line 3.5	0	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-29	MLB	Justin Wrobleski MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	MORE	MED	+1.1pp	proj 5.6 vs line 4.5	9	$0	HIT	$+0.50
2026-05-29	MLB	Nick Martinez MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.0pp	proj 3.5 vs line 4.5	5	$0	MISS	$-0.50
2026-05-29	MLB	MacKenzie Gore MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.0pp	proj 4.5 vs line 5.5	3	$0	HIT	$+0.50
2026-05-29	MLB	Trevor Rogers MLB prop · Walks Allowed	LESS	STRONG	-62.0pp	proj 0.9 vs line 1.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-05-29	MLB	LAA MLB match winner	A	MED	-15.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-29	MLB	PHI MLB match winner	A	MED	-7.4pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-29	MLB	DET MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.48
2026-05-29	MLB	CHC MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.0pp	52%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.15
2026-05-29	MLB	NYY MLB match winner	H	MED	+5.3pp	51%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-29	MLB	LAA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.85
2026-05-29	MLB	BOS MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-29	MLB	DET MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-29	MLB	KC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.51
2026-05-29	MLB	CHC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.62
2026-05-29	MLB	LAA @ TB 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	52%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.92
2026-05-29	MLB	MIA @ NYM 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	53%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.89
2026-05-29	MLB	MIL @ HOU 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-29	MLB	PHI @ LAD 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	57%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.75
2026-05-29	MLB	KC @ TEX 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	58%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.72
2026-05-29	MLB	BOS @ CLE 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	62%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.61
2026-05-29	MLB	MIN @ PIT 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	62%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.61
2026-05-29	MLB	DET @ CWS 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	64%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-29	MLB	SD @ WSH 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	66%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.52
2026-05-29	MLB	AZ @ SEA 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	66%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.52
2026-05-29	MLB	CHC @ STL 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	69%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.45
2026-05-29	MLB	NYY @ ATH 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	69%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.45
2026-05-29	MLB	TOR @ BAL 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	71%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-29	MLB	SF @ COL 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	72%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-29	MLB	ATL @ CIN 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	76%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.32
2026-05-28	MLB	Jack Flaherty MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-2.0pp	proj 4.0 vs line 6.0	9	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-28	MLB	Chris Sale MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	MED	-1.6pp	proj 6.4 vs line 8.0	8	$0	PUSH	$+0.00
2026-05-28	MLB	Davis Martin MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	LESS	STRONG	-1.4pp	proj 3.6 vs line 5.0	5	$1	PUSH	$+0.00
2026-05-28	MLB	Spencer Arrighetti MLB prop · Walks Allowed	MORE	MED	+52.0pp	proj 3.0 vs line 2.5	1	$0	MISS	$-0.50
2026-05-28	MLB	Nathan Eovaldi MLB prop · Walks Allowed	LESS	STRONG	-51.0pp	proj 1.0 vs line 1.5	2	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-28	MLB	CHC MLB match winner	A	MED	-5.9pp	46%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+11.77
2026-05-28	MLB	TOR MLB match winner	A	MED	-5.1pp	51%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.52
2026-05-28	MLB	LAA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-28	MLB	ATL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.05
2026-05-28	MLB	CHC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.12
2026-05-28	MLB	MIN MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.33
2026-05-28	MLB	HOU MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-05-28	MLB	ATL @ BOS 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	53%	✗ missed	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-05-28	MLB	HOU @ TEX 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.85
2026-05-28	MLB	MIN @ CWS 1st inning · YRFI		MED	+0.0pp	68%	✓ cleared	$1	HIT	$+0.47

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-05-29 22:37:56 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.