For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | — | no data | — |
| 40-60% | 229 | 50.4% | +0.4pp |
| 60-80% | 142 | 55.6% | -14.4pp |
| 80-100% | 4 | 75.0% | -15.0pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 632 | 49.8% | $-157.02 | -6.5% |
| WC | 3 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 195 | 41.0% | $-38.00 | -19.2% |
| STRONG | 52 | 57.4% | $+7.00 | +13.5% |
| MED | 388 | 53.0% | $-132.02 | -6.0% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 196 | 40.8% | $-36.00 | -18.4% |
| 1st inning · YRFI | 164 | 54.9% | $-25.68 | -15.7% |
| MLB total runs | 108 | 53.4% | $-61.57 | -5.7% |
| MLB match winner | 93 | 49.5% | $-45.27 | -4.9% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 45 | 65.8% | $+10.00 | +27.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 13 | 38.5% | $-2.50 | -21.7% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 10 | 70.0% | $+4.50 | +47.4% |
| Match winner | 3 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 2 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 1 | 0.0% | $-0.50 | -100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 265 | 45.3% | $-24.50 | -9.6% |
| MLB-ML | 201 | 51.5% | $-106.84 | -5.3% |
| MLB-NRFI | 166 | 54.8% | $-25.68 | -15.5% |
| WC-Kalshi | 3 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Marcelo Mayer MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +79.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Jake Meyers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +98.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Kyle Higashioka MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Nick Loftin MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | José Caballero MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Owen Caissie MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +65.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +62.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | A | MED | -17.4pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.13 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | BOS MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.3pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.14 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | MIL MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.0pp | 52% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | LAD MLB match winner | H | MED | +7.8pp | 45% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | CLE MLB match winner | H | MED | +7.2pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | BOS MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | HOU MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | MIL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 53% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.71 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 53% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Kerry Carpenter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 6 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Sam Antonacci MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Rodolfo Durán MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +100.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Daniel Schneemann MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | George Springer MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +61.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |