For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 2 | 0.0% | -30.0pp |
| 40-60% | 105 | 46.6% | -3.4pp |
| 60-80% | 15 | 50.0% | -20.0pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 560 | 44.9% | $-222.57 | -13.5% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 427 | 45.2% | $-41.00 | -9.6% |
| STRONG | 10 | 20.0% | $-6.00 | -60.0% |
| MED | 123 | 45.8% | $-175.57 | -14.5% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 436 | 44.5% | $-48.00 | -11.0% |
| MLB total runs | 72 | 50.7% | $-82.24 | -11.4% |
| MLB match winner | 49 | 38.8% | $-93.33 | -19.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 2 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 439 | 44.6% | $-47.00 | -10.7% |
| MLB-ML | 121 | 45.8% | $-175.57 | -14.5% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Daylen Lile MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Carlos Cortes MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Esmerlyn Valdez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Moisés Ballesteros MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +100.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | CJ Abrams MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +98.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Lawrence Butler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Drew Cavanaugh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Josh Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Brady House MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Jonah Heim MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Jacob Young MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | José Caballero MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -15.3pp | 43% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | SF MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.6pp | 46% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +5.6pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | MIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | MIL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.67 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | TB MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.11 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | WSH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | — | $10 | PUSH | $+0.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | MLB | BOS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Colson Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.4pp | proj 1.9 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Joshua Báez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Munetaka Murakami MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Dylan Beavers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | J.P. Crawford MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Drew Cavanaugh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | ATH MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.5pp | 46% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.93 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.2pp | 37% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.1pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | BOS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 63% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+5.76 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | MIA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 63% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+5.95 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | TB MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | TOR MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.93 |
| 2026-09-03 | MLB | MIL MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.34 |
| 2026-09-02 | MLB | Michael Busch MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | MLB | Colson Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.4pp | proj 1.9 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |