For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 1 | 0.0% | -10.0pp |
| 20-40% | 1 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 260 | 51.0% | +1.0pp |
| 60-80% | 181 | 55.2% | -14.8pp |
| 80-100% | 4 | 75.0% | -15.0pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 680 | 51.6% | $-79.82 | -3.0% |
| WC | 11 | 18.2% | $-11.92 | -54.2% |
| Tennis | 5 | 20.0% | $-7.00 | -77.8% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 182 | 40.1% | $-41.92 | -21.6% |
| STRONG | 63 | 57.9% | $+7.00 | +10.8% |
| MED | 451 | 54.3% | $-63.82 | -2.7% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st inning · YRFI | 207 | 54.6% | $-32.70 | -15.8% |
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 172 | 40.7% | $-32.00 | -18.6% |
| MLB total runs | 116 | 56.8% | $-0.28 | -0.0% |
| MLB match winner | 101 | 50.5% | $-30.84 | -3.1% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 55 | 68.1% | $+13.50 | +29.7% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 13 | 69.2% | $+5.50 | +44.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 13 | 38.5% | $-2.50 | -21.7% |
| Match winner | 11 | 9.1% | $-15.16 | -68.9% |
| Both teams to score: NO | 4 | 25.0% | $-4.76 | -59.5% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 2 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 1 | 0.0% | $-0.50 | -100.0% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games Won | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 254 | 47.2% | $-16.00 | -6.6% |
| MLB-ML | 217 | 53.8% | $-31.12 | -1.4% |
| MLB-NRFI | 209 | 54.5% | $-32.70 | -15.6% |
| WC-Kalshi | 11 | 18.2% | $-11.92 | -54.2% |
| Tennis-Kalshi | 4 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| Tennis-PP | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Kerry Carpenter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 6 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Sam Antonacci MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Rodolfo Durán MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +100.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Daniel Schneemann MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | George Springer MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +61.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.9pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.33 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | KC MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.6pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | PHI MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.9pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | PHI MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.46 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | NYY MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.97 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | A.J. Ewing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +95.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | Andrés Giménez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | A | MED | -17.8pp | 63% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | MIL MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.4pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | PHI MLB match winner | H | MED | +7.1pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.73 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | BAL MLB match winner | H | MED | +5.1pp | 46% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | AZ MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | HOU MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | NYY MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.04 |
| 2026-06-22 | MLB | BOS MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.27 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Yohendrick Piñango MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 6 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Marcelo Mayer MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +79.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | MLB | Esteury Ruiz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |