For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 2 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 87 | 42.4% | -7.6pp |
| 60-80% | 5 | 60.0% | -10.0pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 320 | 39.6% | $-199.97 | -17.2% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 221 | 38.0% | $-53.00 | -24.0% |
| STRONG | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.00 | -60.0% |
| MED | 94 | 44.6% | $-143.97 | -15.3% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 226 | 37.6% | $-56.00 | -24.8% |
| MLB total runs | 53 | 43.1% | $-113.46 | -21.4% |
| MLB match winner | 41 | 46.3% | $-30.51 | -7.4% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 226 | 37.6% | $-56.00 | -24.8% |
| MLB-ML | 94 | 44.6% | $-143.97 | -15.3% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Jake Bauers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Taylor Ward MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 9 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Cooper Pratt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Myles Straw MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Andrés Giménez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -13.8pp | 51% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.53 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | DET MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.4pp | 53% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.1pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +5.7pp | 45% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | ATH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | LAD MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 61% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.46 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | CWS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | TOR MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.34 |
| 2026-08-05 | MLB | MIA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 7 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Cooper Pratt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.3pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.5pp | 43% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.4pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | MIA MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.8pp | 51% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | TB MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | MIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 53% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.75 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Henry Davis MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | José Fermín MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.3pp | 44% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+12.53 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.6pp | 52% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.0pp | 47% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | STL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.41 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | LAD MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.57 |