Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

465

208 hit · 249 miss · 8 push

Hit rate

45.5%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-194.89

on $1812 staked

ROI

-10.8%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	—	no data	—
40-60%	145	48.9%	-1.1pp
60-80%	57	54.4%	-15.6pp
80-100%	1	100.0%	+10.0pp

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	465	45.5%	$-194.89	-10.8%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	233	40.3%	$-45.00	-19.3%
STRONG	25	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
MED	207	51.0%	$-149.89	-9.6%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	239	39.7%	$-49.00	-20.5%
MLB total runs	84	46.2%	$-146.04	-17.4%
MLB match winner	66	53.0%	$+4.91	+0.7%
1st inning · YRFI	52	53.8%	$-9.76	-18.8%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	18	57.1%	$+1.00	+6.5%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	5	100.0%	$+5.00	+100.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	263	41.7%	$-44.00	-16.9%
MLB-ML	150	49.3%	$-141.13	-9.4%
MLB-NRFI	52	53.8%	$-9.76	-18.8%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-07-05	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 2.6 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-05	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-05	MLB	CWS MLB match winner	A	MED	-15.2pp	60%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.72
2026-07-05	MLB	STL MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.3pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-05	MLB	BAL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-05	MLB	DET MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.96
2026-06-29	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Mark Vientos MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Pavin Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-29	MLB	Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	A.J. Ewing MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Tommy Troy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Pavin Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Lawrence Butler MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+95.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Hao-Yu Lee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Matt Shaw MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+61.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-28	MLB	CHC MLB match winner	A	MED	-13.4pp	51%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.78
2026-06-28	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.9pp	48%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+10.86
2026-06-28	MLB	TEX MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.6pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.96
2026-06-28	MLB	KC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.33
2026-06-28	MLB	ATH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-28	MLB	WSH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.32
2026-06-28	MLB	LAD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-28	MLB	CHC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Brice Matthews MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Tommy Troy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Alejandro Osuna MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+96.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Daniel Schneemann MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Rodolfo Durán MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Garrett Mitchell MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+76.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Tyler Callihan MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+75.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+66.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+61.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-27	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.6pp	61%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.43

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-07-05 22:31:28 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.