For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 1 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 90 | 40.9% | -9.1pp |
| 60-80% | 6 | 80.0% | +10.0pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 325 | 39.1% | $-236.09 | -19.7% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 223 | 37.7% | $-55.00 | -24.7% |
| STRONG | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.00 | -60.0% |
| MED | 97 | 43.6% | $-178.09 | -18.4% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 228 | 37.3% | $-58.00 | -25.4% |
| MLB total runs | 56 | 45.3% | $-107.20 | -19.1% |
| MLB match winner | 41 | 41.5% | $-70.89 | -17.3% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 228 | 37.3% | $-58.00 | -25.4% |
| MLB-ML | 97 | 43.6% | $-178.09 | -18.4% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Trevor Larnach MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Brooks Lee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +88.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Andrés Giménez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Jim Jarvis MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +68.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | ATH MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.6pp | 44% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+12.84 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.7pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | H | MED | +5.9pp | 46% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | HOU MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 63% | — | $10 | PUSH | $+0.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.03 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | NYM MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.39 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | DET MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | ATL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Colson Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.4pp | proj 1.9 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Munetaka Murakami MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Jazz Chisholm Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Taylor Ward MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Max Kepler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Andrew Benintendi MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Jacob Young MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Leody Taveras MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +67.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +65.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | ATH MLB match winner | A | MED | -18.6pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.88 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | LAA MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.7pp | 52% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | CHC MLB match winner | H | MED | +7.0pp | 46% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.64 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | LAA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.27 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | ATL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.34 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | ATH MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.72 |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | CIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.86 |