For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | 1 | 0.0% | -10.0pp |
| 20-40% | 4 | 50.0% | +20.0pp |
| 40-60% | 196 | 47.4% | -2.6pp |
| 60-80% | 181 | 56.9% | -13.1pp |
| 80-100% | 5 | 60.0% | -30.0pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 448 | 56.6% | $+88.63 | +5.4% |
| Tennis | 46 | 32.6% | $-32.06 | -43.3% |
| WC | 27 | 33.3% | $-16.38 | -30.3% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 82 | 41.5% | $-30.44 | -23.4% |
| STRONG | 49 | 55.6% | $-1.00 | -1.8% |
| MED | 373 | 54.9% | $+65.63 | +4.2% |
| LOW | 17 | 68.8% | $+6.00 | +35.3% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st inning · YRFI | 209 | 55.5% | $-28.96 | -13.9% |
| MLB total runs | 68 | 57.6% | $+6.76 | +1.0% |
| MLB match winner | 63 | 52.4% | $-11.09 | -1.8% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 50 | 66.7% | $+13.50 | +33.8% |
| Match winner | 42 | 19.0% | $-48.17 | -57.3% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 29 | 60.7% | $+6.00 | +22.2% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games Won | 13 | 53.8% | $+1.00 | +7.7% |
| Both teams to score: NO | 12 | 50.0% | $-0.27 | -1.1% |
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 10 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 9 | 44.4% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 5 | 60.0% | $+1.50 | +33.3% |
| Tennis prop · Total Games | 4 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 3 | 66.7% | $+0.92 | +30.8% |
| Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play | 1 | 100.0% | $+110.00 | +1100.0% |
| Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle | 1 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| Total goals over/under | 1 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Tennis prop · Total Tie Breaks | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-NRFI | 212 | 55.7% | $-28.04 | -13.2% |
| MLB-ML | 131 | 55.0% | $-4.33 | -0.3% |
| MLB-PP | 103 | 60.8% | $+21.00 | +23.5% |
| Tennis-Kalshi | 28 | 17.9% | $-34.06 | -60.8% |
| WC-Kalshi | 27 | 33.3% | $-16.38 | -30.3% |
| Tennis-PP | 18 | 55.6% | $+2.00 | +11.1% |
| Real-Money | 2 | 50.0% | $+100.00 | +500.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | Grayson Rodriguez MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | ELITE | -11.6pp | proj 21.9 vs line 33.5 | 2.2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | Michael Soroka MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE | ELITE | +8.3pp | proj 32.8 vs line 24.5 | 30.5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | Kyle Harrison MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | STRONG | -5.8pp | proj 30.8 vs line 36.5 | 57.7 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | Trevor McDonald MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE | STRONG | +5.7pp | proj 29.2 vs line 23.5 | 22 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | Connelly Early MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE | STRONG | +5.2pp | proj 36.7 vs line 31.5 | 27.8 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | Eric Lauer MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | MORE | STRONG | +5.2pp | proj 24.6 vs line 19.5 | 14.7 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.5pp | 60% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | DET MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.33 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | BAL MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.1pp | 52% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.23 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | NYM MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.1pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | TOR MLB match winner | H | MED | +6.7pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.26 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.69 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | TOR MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | DET MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.05 |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | CLE @ NYY 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | TOR @ ATL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.72 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | NYM @ SEA 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 61% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | BAL @ BOS 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.61 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | SD @ PHI 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 65% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | SF @ MIL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 65% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.54 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | KC @ CIN 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 68% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | TEX @ STL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 68% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | CWS @ MIN 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 69% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | COL @ LAA 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 72% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | LAD @ AZ 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 72% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.39 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | DET @ TB 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 74% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.35 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | MIA @ WSH 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 75% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | PIT @ HOU 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 77% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.30 | |
| 2026-06-02 | MLB | ATH @ CHC 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 78% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.28 | |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.1pp | 51% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | DET MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.4pp | 51% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.57 |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | SF MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.3pp | 53% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | COL MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.2pp | 47% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+11.36 |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | TEX MLB match winner | H | MED | +6.5pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | COL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.71 |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | DET MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.79 |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | MIA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.38 |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | NYM @ SEA 1st inning · NRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 | |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | DET @ TB 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.85 | |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | SF @ MIL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | TEX @ STL 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | CWS @ MIN 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 62% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.61 | |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | KC @ CIN 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 65% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.54 | |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | COL @ LAA 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 65% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.54 | |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | LAD @ AZ 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 67% | ✗ missed | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 | |
| 2026-06-01 | MLB | MIA @ WSH 1st inning · YRFI | MED | +0.0pp | 70% | ✓ cleared | $1 | HIT | $+0.43 | |
| 2026-05-31 | MLB | LAA MLB match winner | A | MED | -13.9pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |