edgeboard
Auto-refresh every 5 min · 2026-06-23 22:37 PT

Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded
696
347 hit · 336 miss · 13 push
Hit rate
50.8%
excludes pushes
Cumulative P&L
$-98.74
on $2652 staked
ROI
-3.7%
paper + real combined
CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)
$-8$+0$+992026-05-242026-06-23
CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

PredictedNActual hit rateGap
0-20%10.0%-10.0pp
20-40%1100.0%+70.0pp
40-60%26051.0%+1.0pp
60-80%18155.2%-14.8pp
80-100%475.0%-15.0pp
Performance breakdown
By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
MLB68051.6%
$-79.82-3.0%
WC1118.2%
$-11.92-54.2%
Tennis520.0%
$-7.00-77.8%
By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
ELITE18240.1%
$-41.92-21.6%
STRONG6357.9%
$+7.00+10.8%
MED45154.3%
$-63.82-2.7%
By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
1st inning · YRFI20754.6%
$-32.70-15.8%
MLB prop · Total Bases17240.7%
$-32.00-18.6%
MLB total runs11656.8%
$-0.28-0.0%
MLB match winner10150.5%
$-30.84-3.1%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts5568.1%
$+13.50+29.7%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed1369.2%
$+5.50+44.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score1338.5%
$-2.50-21.7%
Match winner119.1%
$-15.16-68.9%
Both teams to score: NO425.0%
$-4.76-59.5%
1st inning · NRFI250.0%
$+0.00+0.0%
MLB prop · Pitching Outs10.0%
$-0.50-100.0%
Tennis prop · Total Games Won1100.0%
$+1.00+100.0%
By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
MLB-PP25447.2%
$-16.00-6.6%
MLB-ML21753.8%
$-31.12-1.4%
MLB-NRFI20954.5%
$-32.70-15.6%
WC-Kalshi1118.2%
$-11.92-54.2%
Tennis-Kalshi40.0%
$-8.00-100.0%
Tennis-PP1100.0%
$+1.00+100.0%
Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)
DateSportPickSideTierEdgeModel saidActualStakeResultP&L
2026-06-23MLB
Kerry Carpenter
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.3ppproj 1.8 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Dansby Swanson
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.3ppproj 1.8 vs line 0.56$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Brett Baty
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Sam Antonacci
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Ryan McMahon
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Mike Yastrzemski
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Rodolfo Durán
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+100.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Rhys Hoskins
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+94.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Daniel Schneemann
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+93.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Shohei Ohtani
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+90.0ppproj 2.4 vs line 1.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Tristan Peters
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+84.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Zach McKinstry
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+82.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Michael Massey
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+78.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.52$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Kyle Schwarber
MLB prop · Total Bases
MORESTRONG+65.0ppproj 2.1 vs line 1.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-23MLB
Taylor Walls
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+64.0ppproj 1.1 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-23MLB
George Springer
MLB prop · Total Bases
MORESTRONG+61.0ppproj 2.1 vs line 1.51$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-23MLB
HOU
MLB match winner
AMED-12.9pp58%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.33
2026-06-23MLB
KC
MLB match winner
AMED-12.6pp50%✓ cleared$10HIT$+10.00
2026-06-23MLB
PHI
MLB match winner
HMED+8.9pp49%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-06-23MLB
PHI
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp57%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.46
2026-06-23MLB
NYY
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp56%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-06-23MLB
KC
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp56%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.97
2026-06-22MLB
Dansby Swanson
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.3ppproj 1.8 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-22MLB
Mike Yastrzemski
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-22MLB
A.J. Ewing
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+95.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-22MLB
Cam Smith
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+89.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-22MLB
Isaac Collins
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+83.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-22MLB
Andrés Giménez
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+83.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-22MLB
Zach McKinstry
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+82.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.53$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-22MLB
Jacob Gonzalez
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+68.0ppproj 1.2 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-22MLB
Taylor Walls
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+64.0ppproj 1.1 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-22MLB
HOU
MLB match winner
AMED-17.8pp63%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-06-22MLB
MIL
MLB match winner
HMED+8.4pp49%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-06-22MLB
PHI
MLB match winner
HMED+7.1pp60%✓ cleared$10HIT$+6.73
2026-06-22MLB
BAL
MLB match winner
HMED+5.1pp46%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-06-22MLB
AZ
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp60%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-06-22MLB
HOU
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp58%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-06-22MLB
NYY
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp57%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-06-22MLB
CLE
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp55%✓ cleared$10HIT$+8.04
2026-06-22MLB
BOS
MLB total runs
UMED+0.0pp55%✓ cleared$10HIT$+8.27
2026-06-21MLB
Ian Happ
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-21MLB
Brett Baty
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-21MLB
Francisco Alvarez
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-21MLB
Carson Kelly
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-21MLB
Yohendrick Piñango
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-21MLB
Colton Cowser
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+99.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.56$1HIT$+1.00
2026-06-21MLB
Shohei Ohtani
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+90.0ppproj 2.4 vs line 1.51$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-21MLB
Coby Mayo
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+84.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-21MLB
Marcelo Mayer
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+79.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-06-21MLB
Esteury Ruiz
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+72.0ppproj 1.2 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-06-23 22:37:02 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.