For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 2 | 0.0% | -30.0pp |
| 40-60% | 104 | 48.5% | -1.5pp |
| 60-80% | 14 | 46.2% | -23.8pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 578 | 45.1% | $-181.39 | -11.0% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 445 | 45.2% | $-43.00 | -9.7% |
| STRONG | 9 | 22.2% | $-5.00 | -55.6% |
| MED | 124 | 46.7% | $-133.39 | -11.2% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 451 | 44.6% | $-49.00 | -10.9% |
| MLB total runs | 70 | 50.0% | $-84.68 | -12.1% |
| MLB match winner | 49 | 42.9% | $-48.21 | -9.8% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 7 | 42.9% | $-0.50 | -11.1% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 459 | 44.7% | $-48.50 | -10.6% |
| MLB-ML | 119 | 47.0% | $-132.89 | -11.2% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Gavin Williams MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -3.0pp | proj 4.5 vs line 7.5 | 11 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Kyle Harrison MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -2.0pp | proj 4.5 vs line 6.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Bryan Woo MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -1.6pp | proj 5.0 vs line 6.5 | 9 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Justin Foscue MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Taylor Ward MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Aaron Nola MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -1.1pp | proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | 5 | $0 | HIT | $+0.50 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Gage Jump MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | MED | -1.1pp | proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | 7 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Trevor Larnach MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Hao-Yu Lee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +98.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Drew Cavanaugh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +88.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Josh Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Ben Malgeri MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | ATH MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.4pp | 45% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | TOR MLB match winner | H | MED | +4.2pp | 53% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.01 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | AZ MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | CHC MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.06 |
| 2026-09-06 | MLB | NYY MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 53% | — | $10 | PUSH | $+0.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Colson Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.4pp | proj 1.9 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Jazz Chisholm Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Austin Riley MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Colt Keith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Abimelec Ortiz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Dylan Beavers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 8 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Dylan Crews MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +95.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Josh Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +87.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Jacob Young MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | José Caballero MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | Cody Freeman MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +70.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.9pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | ATH MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.2pp | 43% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+13.27 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | DET MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.3pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.05 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | TOR MLB match winner | H | MED | +4.5pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | MLB | MIL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 64% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |