Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

349

142 hit · 205 miss · 2 push

Hit rate

40.9%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-196.78

on $1492 staked

ROI

-13.2%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	2	100.0%	+70.0pp
40-60%	118	45.7%	-4.3pp
60-80%	7	57.1%	-12.9pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	349	40.9%	$-196.78	-13.2%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	217	37.8%	$-53.00	-24.4%
STRONG	5	20.0%	$-3.00	-60.0%
MED	127	47.2%	$-140.78	-11.1%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	222	37.4%	$-56.00	-25.2%
MLB total runs	71	42.0%	$-161.66	-22.8%
MLB match winner	56	53.6%	$+20.88	+3.7%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	222	37.4%	$-56.00	-25.2%
MLB-ML	127	47.2%	$-140.78	-11.1%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-07-20	MLB	Colson Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.4pp	proj 1.9 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-20	MLB	Carson Benge MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-20	MLB	Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 2.3 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-20	MLB	Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-20	MLB	Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+76.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-20	MLB	Chase Meidroth MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-18	MLB	Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-18	MLB	Willy Adames MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-18	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-18	MLB	Josh Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+87.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-18	MLB	Luke Raley MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-18	MLB	José Caballero MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-18	MLB	Denzer Guzman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-17	MLB	Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-17	MLB	Willy Adames MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-17	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-17	MLB	Luke Raley MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-17	MLB	CWS MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.3pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.03
2026-07-17	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.2pp	60%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.58
2026-07-17	MLB	SD MLB match winner	H	MED	+4.5pp	53%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.83
2026-07-17	MLB	DET MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-17	MLB	MIA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-17	MLB	SD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.20
2026-07-17	MLB	TB MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-17	MLB	MIN MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-16	MLB	Juan Soto MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+75.0pp	proj 2.2 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Matt Vierling MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	6	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Hao-Yu Lee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	TJ Friedl MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+67.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-12	MLB	AZ MLB match winner	A	MED	-8.5pp	42%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+13.84
2026-07-12	MLB	BOS MLB match winner	H	MED	+7.2pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-12	MLB	NYY MLB match winner	H	MED	+5.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-12	MLB	CLE MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-12	MLB	ATL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-07-12	MLB	ATH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.88
2026-07-12	MLB	NYY MLB total runs	U	MED	+0.0pp	53%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.73
2026-07-11	MLB	Kyle Manzardo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Andrew Benintendi MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Edouard Julien MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-07-11	MLB	Victor Mesa Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-07-21 06:15:53 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.