For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 2 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 87 | 44.7% | -5.3pp |
| 60-80% | 3 | 66.7% | -3.3pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 313 | 41.2% | $-148.55 | -13.0% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 217 | 39.2% | $-47.00 | -21.7% |
| STRONG | 4 | 25.0% | $-2.00 | -50.0% |
| MED | 92 | 46.7% | $-99.55 | -10.8% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 221 | 38.9% | $-49.00 | -22.2% |
| MLB total runs | 51 | 44.9% | $-91.75 | -18.0% |
| MLB match winner | 41 | 48.8% | $-7.80 | -1.9% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 221 | 38.9% | $-49.00 | -22.2% |
| MLB-ML | 92 | 46.7% | $-99.55 | -10.8% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 7 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Cooper Pratt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.3pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -11.5pp | 43% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.4pp | 48% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | MIA MLB match winner | A | MED | -7.8pp | 51% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | TB MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | MLB | MIN MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 53% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.75 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Henry Davis MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | José Fermín MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.3pp | 44% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+12.53 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.6pp | 52% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.0pp | 47% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | STL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.41 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | LAD MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.57 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | TB MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | TOR MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | PIT MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Jo Adell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Marcell Ozuna MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Jorge Soler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Denzer Guzman MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |