For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 1 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 244 | 50.6% | +0.6pp |
| 60-80% | 153 | 56.2% | -13.8pp |
| 80-100% | 4 | 75.0% | -15.0pp |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 663 | 50.9% | $-143.28 | -5.6% |
| WC | 4 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 190 | 41.6% | $-36.00 | -18.6% |
| STRONG | 61 | 58.2% | $+9.00 | +14.8% |
| MED | 416 | 53.8% | $-124.28 | -5.4% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 189 | 41.3% | $-33.00 | -17.5% |
| 1st inning · YRFI | 179 | 55.3% | $-26.87 | -15.0% |
| MLB total runs | 113 | 55.6% | $-23.51 | -2.1% |
| MLB match winner | 98 | 48.0% | $-75.90 | -7.7% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 55 | 68.1% | $+13.50 | +29.7% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 13 | 69.2% | $+5.50 | +44.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 13 | 38.5% | $-2.50 | -21.7% |
| Match winner | 4 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| 1st inning · NRFI | 2 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 1 | 0.0% | $-0.50 | -100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 271 | 47.1% | $-17.00 | -6.6% |
| MLB-ML | 211 | 51.9% | $-99.41 | -4.7% |
| MLB-NRFI | 181 | 55.2% | $-26.87 | -14.8% |
| WC-Kalshi | 4 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Jake Meyers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +98.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Kyle Higashioka MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Nick Loftin MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | José Caballero MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Owen Caissie MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +65.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +62.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | A | MED | -17.4pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.13 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | BOS MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.3pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.14 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | MIL MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.0pp | 52% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | LAD MLB match winner | H | MED | +7.8pp | 45% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | CLE MLB match winner | H | MED | +7.2pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | CLE MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | BOS MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | HOU MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | MIL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 53% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.71 |
| 2026-06-24 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 53% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Kerry Carpenter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 6 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Sam Antonacci MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Rodolfo Durán MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +100.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Daniel Schneemann MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Zach McKinstry MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +82.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Michael Massey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | George Springer MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +61.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | HOU MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.9pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.33 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | KC MLB match winner | A | MED | -12.6pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+10.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | BOS MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.8pp | 51% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | PHI MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.9pp | 49% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | AZ MLB match winner | H | MED | +7.5pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | AZ MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | MLB | PHI MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.46 |