For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 4 | 25.0% | -5.0pp |
| 40-60% | 100 | 50.0% | 0.0pp |
| 60-80% | 10 | 66.7% | -3.3pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 576 | 43.6% | $-160.39 | -10.1% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 442 | 42.8% | $-64.00 | -14.5% |
| STRONG | 15 | 28.6% | $-6.00 | -40.0% |
| MED | 119 | 48.7% | $-90.39 | -8.0% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 447 | 42.1% | $-71.00 | -15.9% |
| MLB total runs | 66 | 60.3% | $+39.59 | +6.0% |
| MLB match winner | 46 | 34.8% | $-128.98 | -28.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | 10 | 55.6% | $+1.50 | +20.0% |
| MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | 4 | 33.3% | $-1.00 | -28.6% |
| MLB prop · Pitching Outs | 2 | 0.0% | $-1.50 | -100.0% |
| MLB prop · Walks Allowed | 1 | 100.0% | $+1.00 | +100.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 464 | 42.2% | $-71.00 | -15.4% |
| MLB-ML | 112 | 49.5% | $-89.39 | -8.0% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Max Fried MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | STRONG | -6.3pp | proj 23.2 vs line 29.5 | 45 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Griffin Jax MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | STRONG | -5.2pp | proj 24.3 vs line 29.5 | 40 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Davis Martin MLB prop · Pitching Outs | LESS | STRONG | -4.6pp | proj 9.9 vs line 14.5 | 16 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Jackson Kent MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score | LESS | MED | -3.0pp | proj 19.5 vs line 22.5 | 22.5 | $0 | PUSH | $+0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Michael Soroka MLB prop · Pitching Outs | LESS | MED | -2.2pp | proj 12.3 vs line 14.5 | 15 | $0 | MISS | $-0.50 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Foster Griffin MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts | LESS | STRONG | -1.3pp | proj 3.7 vs line 5.0 | 5 | $1 | PUSH | $+0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Rafael Flores Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Brandon Lowe MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Munetaka Murakami MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Oneil Cruz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | MLB | Spencer Horwitz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +100.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Spencer Torkelson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Luis Campusano MLB prop · Total Bases | LESS | ELITE | -1.2pp | proj 0.3 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Andrew Benintendi MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Weston Wilson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Braden Montgomery MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +78.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Héctor Rodríguez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +75.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | Patrick Bailey MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | ATL MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.4pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | SD MLB match winner | H | MED | +9.3pp | 46% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | SEA MLB match winner | H | MED | +5.5pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.17 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | SEA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.63 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | SF MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | SD MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.45 |
| 2026-09-14 | MLB | MIA MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.57 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Agustín Ramírez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Samuel Basallo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | MLB | Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +89.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |