edgeboard
Auto-refresh every 5 min · 2026-08-07 22:39 PT

Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded
335
124 hit · 209 miss · 2 push
Hit rate
37.2%
excludes pushes
Cumulative P&L
$-283.81
on $1271 staked
ROI
-22.3%
paper + real combined
CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)
$-361$+0$+02026-06-292026-08-07
CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

PredictedNActual hit rateGap
0-20%no data
20-40%2100.0%+70.0pp
40-60%9740.0%-10.0pp
60-80%560.0%-10.0pp
80-100%no data
Performance breakdown
By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
MLB33537.2%
$-283.81-22.3%
By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
ELITE22535.6%
$-65.00-28.9%
STRONG616.7%
$-4.00-66.7%
MED10442.2%
$-214.81-20.7%
By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
MLB prop · Total Bases23135.1%
$-69.00-29.9%
MLB total runs5943.9%
$-123.61-21.0%
MLB match winner4540.0%
$-91.20-20.3%
By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

BucketNHit rateP&LROI
MLB-PP23135.1%
$-69.00-29.9%
MLB-ML10442.2%
$-214.81-20.7%
Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)
DateSportPickSideTierEdgeModel saidActualStakeResultP&L
2026-08-07MLB
Cal Raleigh
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.5ppproj 2.0 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-07MLB
Gavin Sheets
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-07MLB
Taylor Ward
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-07MLB
Max Kepler
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-07MLB
Ryan McMahon
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.53$1HIT$+1.00
2026-08-07MLB
Shohei Ohtani
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+90.0ppproj 2.4 vs line 1.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-07MLB
Tim Tawa
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+86.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-08-07MLB
Myles Straw
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+85.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-07MLB
Andrés Giménez
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+83.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.54$1HIT$+1.00
2026-08-07MLB
Cedric Mullins
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+74.0ppproj 1.2 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-07MLB
David Hamilton
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+68.0ppproj 1.2 vs line 0.53$1HIT$+1.00
2026-08-07MLB
Colt Emerson
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+63.0ppproj 1.1 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-08-07MLB
ATL
MLB match winner
AMED-14.5pp56%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-07MLB
ATH
MLB match winner
AMED-14.2pp44%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-07MLB
CHC
MLB match winner
HMED+11.4pp50%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-07MLB
CLE
MLB match winner
HMED+5.1pp48%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-07MLB
COL
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp59%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-07MLB
CHC
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp58%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.30
2026-08-07MLB
CLE
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp57%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.40
2026-08-07MLB
ATL
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp57%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-07MLB
CIN
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp56%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-06MLB
Joe Mack
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.1ppproj 1.6 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-06MLB
Jared Triolo
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+92.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-06MLB
Griffin Conine
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+92.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-08-06MLB
Luis Lara
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+88.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-06MLB
Zach McKinstry
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+82.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-06MLB
Patrick Bailey
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+73.0ppproj 1.2 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-06MLB
Kyle Schwarber
MLB prop · Total Bases
MORESTRONG+65.0ppproj 2.1 vs line 1.52$1HIT$+1.00
2026-08-06MLB
Pete Alonso
MLB prop · Total Bases
MORESTRONG+61.0ppproj 2.1 vs line 1.51$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-06MLB
WSH
MLB match winner
AMED-13.0pp41%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-06MLB
LAA
MLB match winner
AMED-11.0pp47%✓ cleared$10HIT$+11.10
2026-08-06MLB
CWS
MLB match winner
AMED-10.2pp48%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-06MLB
LAA
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp60%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-06MLB
WSH
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp59%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.05
2026-08-06MLB
CWS
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp59%✓ cleared$10HIT$+7.06
2026-08-06MLB
DET
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp55%✓ cleared$10HIT$+8.08
2026-08-06MLB
PIT
MLB total runs
OMED+0.0pp54%✗ missed$10MISS$-10.00
2026-08-05MLB
Jake Bauers
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Spencer Torkelson
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Taylor Ward
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+1.2ppproj 1.7 vs line 0.51$1HIT$+1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Christian Koss
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+99.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Jackson Holliday
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+99.0ppproj 1.5 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Shohei Ohtani
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+90.0ppproj 2.4 vs line 1.59$1HIT$+1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Cooper Pratt
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+87.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Myles Straw
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+85.0ppproj 1.4 vs line 0.52$1HIT$+1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Andrés Giménez
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+83.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Zach McKinstry
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+82.0ppproj 1.3 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Kyle Schwarber
MLB prop · Total Bases
MORESTRONG+65.0ppproj 2.1 vs line 1.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-05MLB
Taylor Trammell
MLB prop · Total Bases
MOREELITE+63.0ppproj 1.1 vs line 0.50$1MISS$-1.00
2026-08-05MLB
WSH
MLB match winner
AMED-13.8pp51%✓ cleared$10HIT$+9.53
Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-08-07 22:39:01 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.