For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 2 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 85 | 47.0% | -3.0pp |
| 60-80% | 3 | 66.7% | -3.3pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 303 | 41.2% | $-114.62 | -10.3% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 210 | 38.1% | $-50.00 | -23.8% |
| STRONG | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.00 | -33.3% |
| MED | 90 | 48.9% | $-63.62 | -7.1% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 213 | 38.0% | $-51.00 | -23.9% |
| MLB total runs | 51 | 44.9% | $-92.54 | -18.1% |
| MLB match winner | 39 | 53.8% | $+28.92 | +7.4% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 213 | 38.0% | $-51.00 | -23.9% |
| MLB-ML | 90 | 48.9% | $-63.62 | -7.1% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Jacob Gonzalez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Henry Davis MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +94.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +91.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | José Fermín MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +74.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.3pp | 44% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+12.53 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | WSH MLB match winner | A | MED | -8.6pp | 52% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | TB MLB match winner | H | MED | +8.0pp | 47% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | STL MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.41 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | LAD MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 57% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.57 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | TB MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | TOR MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | MLB | PIT MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Jo Adell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Marcell Ozuna MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Ryan McMahon MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Jorge Soler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 1 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Tim Tawa MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +73.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Denzer Guzman MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -13.0pp | 59% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.89 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | SF MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.0pp | 52% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -9.7pp | 50% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+9.82 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | NYY MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 59% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | CWS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 58% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+7.28 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | DET MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 56% | — | $10 | PUSH | $+0.00 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | PIT MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.21 |
| 2026-08-02 | MLB | TEX MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.42 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Victor Caratini MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |