Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

681

340 hit · 328 miss · 13 push

Hit rate

50.9%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-98.32

on $2577 staked

ROI

-3.8%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	1	0.0%	-10.0pp
20-40%	1	100.0%	+70.0pp
40-60%	260	50.6%	+0.6pp
60-80%	191	53.9%	-16.1pp
80-100%	4	75.0%	-15.0pp

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	662	51.9%	$-73.40	-2.9%
WC	11	18.2%	$-11.92	-54.2%
Tennis	8	12.5%	$-13.00	-86.7%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	161	39.8%	$-40.92	-23.4%
STRONG	62	58.9%	$+7.00	+10.8%
MED	458	53.9%	$-64.40	-2.8%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
1st inning · YRFI	221	53.8%	$-36.67	-16.6%
MLB prop · Total Bases	147	41.5%	$-25.00	-17.0%
MLB total runs	112	56.1%	$-13.89	-1.2%
MLB match winner	98	51.0%	$-13.84	-1.4%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	55	68.1%	$+13.50	+29.7%
Match winner	14	7.1%	$-21.16	-75.6%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	13	69.2%	$+5.50	+44.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	13	38.5%	$-2.50	-21.7%
Both teams to score: NO	4	25.0%	$-4.76	-59.5%
1st inning · NRFI	2	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
MLB prop · Pitching Outs	1	0.0%	$-0.50	-100.0%
Tennis prop · Total Games Won	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	229	48.4%	$-9.00	-4.1%
MLB-NRFI	223	53.8%	$-36.67	-16.4%
MLB-ML	210	53.7%	$-27.73	-1.3%
WC-Kalshi	11	18.2%	$-11.92	-54.2%
Tennis-Kalshi	7	0.0%	$-14.00	-100.0%
Tennis-PP	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-06-21	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	Yohendrick Piñango MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	6	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	1	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	Marcelo Mayer MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+79.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	Esteury Ruiz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+72.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-21	MLB	NYM MLB match winner	A	MED	-15.7pp	51%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-21	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-13.9pp	60%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-21	MLB	STL MLB match winner	A	MED	-7.1pp	62%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.24
2026-06-21	MLB	SF MLB match winner	H	MED	+5.2pp	49%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+10.52
2026-06-21	MLB	WSH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-21	MLB	STL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.10
2026-06-21	MLB	NYM MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	—	$10	PUSH	$+0.00
2026-06-21	MLB	LAA MLB total runs	U	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-21	MLB	CWS MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.46
2026-06-20	MLB	Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-20	MLB	Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-20	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-20	MLB	A.J. Ewing MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+94.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-20	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-20	MLB	Blaze Alexander MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+88.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-20	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-20	MLB	Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+74.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-20	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-20	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-13.7pp	60%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.80
2026-06-20	MLB	BAL MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.5pp	43%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+13.15
2026-06-20	MLB	NYM MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.3pp	46%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-20	MLB	CWS MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.4pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-20	MLB	BAL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-20	MLB	WSH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-20	MLB	SD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.32
2026-06-20	MLB	CLE MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.49
2026-06-19	MLB	Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Austin Riley MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Tyler Stephenson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Dominic Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+94.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+72.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+64.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-19	MLB	Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+61.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-18	MLB	Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-06-22 10:43:21 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.