Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

778

400 hit · 365 miss · 13 push

Hit rate

52.3%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-3.68

on $2678 staked

ROI

-0.1%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	1	0.0%	-10.0pp
20-40%	4	50.0%	+20.0pp
40-60%	278	48.4%	-1.6pp
60-80%	250	56.4%	-13.6pp
80-100%	7	71.4%	-18.6pp

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	704	54.4%	$+46.75	+1.8%
Tennis	46	32.6%	$-32.06	-43.3%
WC	28	32.1%	$-18.38	-32.8%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	147	40.1%	$-46.44	-23.7%
STRONG	79	58.3%	$+6.00	+7.1%
MED	535	54.3%	$+30.75	+1.3%
LOW	17	68.8%	$+6.00	+35.3%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
1st inning · YRFI	285	54.7%	$-43.99	-15.4%
MLB total runs	108	57.1%	$-4.00	-0.4%
MLB match winner	97	51.5%	$-20.68	-2.1%
MLB prop · Total Bases	77	40.3%	$-15.00	-19.5%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	75	65.2%	$+17.00	+27.9%
Match winner	43	18.6%	$-50.17	-58.3%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	36	57.1%	$+5.50	+16.9%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	15	66.7%	$+6.00	+42.9%
Tennis prop · Total Games Won	13	53.8%	$+1.00	+7.7%
Both teams to score: NO	12	50.0%	$-0.27	-1.1%
MLB prop · Pitching Outs	6	50.0%	$+1.00	+20.0%
Tennis prop · Total Games	4	50.0%	$+0.00	+0.0%
1st inning · NRFI	3	66.7%	$+0.92	+30.8%
Real money · PrizePicks · 4-pick power play	1	100.0%	$+110.00	+1100.0%
Real money · Kalshi · 1+ HR bundle	1	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Total goals over/under	1	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Tennis prop · Total Tie Breaks	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-NRFI	288	54.9%	$-43.07	-15.0%
MLB-PP	209	53.8%	$+14.50	+7.7%
MLB-ML	205	54.5%	$-24.68	-1.2%
WC-Kalshi	28	32.1%	$-18.38	-32.8%
Tennis-Kalshi	28	17.9%	$-34.06	-60.8%
Tennis-PP	18	55.6%	$+2.00	+11.1%
Real-Money	2	50.0%	$+100.00	+500.0%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-06-12	MLB	Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.6pp	proj 2.1 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-12	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-12	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-12	MLB	Bryson Stott MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+95.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-12	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-12	MLB	Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-12	MLB	Shea Langeliers MLB prop · Total Bases	LESS	STRONG	-79.0pp	proj 1.7 vs line 2.5	4	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-12	MLB	Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+72.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-12	MLB	David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+68.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-12	MLB	Owen Caissie MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+65.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-12	MLB	COL MLB match winner	A	MED	-15.9pp	50%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-12	MLB	LAD MLB match winner	H	MED	+12.0pp	52%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.37
2026-06-12	MLB	TB MLB match winner	H	MED	+9.8pp	49%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+10.46
2026-06-12	MLB	TEX MLB match winner	A	MED	-8.7pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-12	MLB	SEA MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.3pp	49%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-12	MLB	COL MLB total runs	U	MED	+0.0pp	68%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+4.68
2026-06-12	MLB	AZ MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	61%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-12	MLB	SEA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.96
2026-06-12	MLB	MIA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.06
2026-06-12	MLB	LAD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.21
2026-06-11	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-11	MLB	Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-11	MLB	Corey Seager MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+60.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-11	MLB	LAD MLB match winner	H	MED	+9.3pp	51%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-11	MLB	CHC MLB match winner	H	MED	+6.5pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-11	MLB	AZ MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-11	MLB	CHC MLB total runs	U	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-11	MLB	LAD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.46
2026-06-11	MLB	MIN MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	53%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.78
2026-06-10	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	Yohendrick Piñango MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	Tyler Stephenson MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	Rhys Hoskins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+94.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+82.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	Marcelo Mayer MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+79.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+65.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	Alex Freeland MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+61.0pp	proj 1.1 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	Corey Seager MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+60.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-06-10	MLB	CIN MLB match winner	A	MED	-14.7pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-10	MLB	NYY MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.4pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.02
2026-06-10	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.4pp	62%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-10	MLB	CHC MLB match winner	H	MED	+7.7pp	47%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+11.35
2026-06-10	MLB	MIL MLB total runs	U	MED	+0.0pp	73%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+3.71
2026-06-10	MLB	CHC MLB total runs	U	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.90
2026-06-10	MLB	CIN MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.59
2026-06-10	MLB	ATL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	57%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-10	MLB	AZ MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-06-09	MLB	Adolis García MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-06-13 09:16:12 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.