For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 2 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 69 | 45.6% | -4.4pp |
| 60-80% | 3 | 66.7% | -3.3pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 261 | 41.9% | $-100.75 | -10.9% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 184 | 39.7% | $-38.00 | -20.7% |
| STRONG | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.00 | -33.3% |
| MED | 74 | 47.9% | $-61.75 | -8.3% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 187 | 39.6% | $-39.00 | -20.9% |
| MLB total runs | 41 | 42.5% | $-91.43 | -22.3% |
| MLB match winner | 33 | 54.5% | $+29.68 | +9.0% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 187 | 39.6% | $-39.00 | -20.9% |
| MLB-ML | 74 | 47.9% | $-61.75 | -8.3% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Dansby Swanson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Victor Caratini MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | Taylor Trammell MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +63.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | AZ MLB match winner | A | MED | -15.5pp | 54% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+8.56 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | STL MLB match winner | A | MED | -14.7pp | 58% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | CWS MLB match winner | A | MED | -10.6pp | 50% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | NYY MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 60% | ✓ cleared | $10 | HIT | $+6.59 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | CWS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 55% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | DET MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | BOS MLB total runs | O | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | MLB | KC MLB total runs | U | MED | +0.0pp | 54% | ✗ missed | $10 | MISS | $-10.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | MLB | Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | MLB | Dane Myers MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +95.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | MLB | Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | MLB | Carter Jensen MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +84.0pp | proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | MLB | Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | MLB | Kyle Schwarber MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | STRONG | +65.0pp | proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | MLB | Jared Young MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | MLB | Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | MLB | Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Lars Nootbaar MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +98.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Leody Taveras MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +67.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Carson Benge MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Marcus Semien MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 7 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Willi Castro MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Kyle Manzardo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Hao-Yu Lee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Lawrence Butler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +95.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |