Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

565

248 hit · 314 miss · 3 push

Hit rate

44.1%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-154.71

on $1508 staked

ROI

-10.3%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	3	0.0%	-30.0pp
40-60%	94	50.0%	0.0pp
60-80%	9	62.5%	-7.5pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	565	44.1%	$-154.71	-10.3%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	443	43.3%	$-59.00	-13.3%
STRONG	12	33.3%	$-4.00	-33.3%
MED	110	48.6%	$-91.71	-8.7%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	449	42.5%	$-67.00	-14.9%
MLB total runs	62	59.3%	$+25.94	+4.2%
MLB match winner	43	34.9%	$-117.15	-27.2%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	9	55.6%	$+1.50	+23.1%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%
MLB prop · Pitcher Fantasy Score	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	460	43.0%	$-63.50	-13.9%
MLB-ML	105	49.0%	$-91.21	-8.7%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-09-13	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Agustín Ramírez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	5	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Christian Koss MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Jared Triolo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Samuel Basallo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Cam Smith MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Coby Mayo MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+74.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Héctor Rodríguez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-13	MLB	CIN MLB match winner	A	MED	-14.3pp	55%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.14
2026-09-13	MLB	KC MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.2pp	46%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-13	MLB	TEX MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.02
2026-09-13	MLB	HOU MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	58%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.18
2026-09-13	MLB	CLE MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	56%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.93
2026-09-13	MLB	KC MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	55%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-13	MLB	SD MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	54%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+8.44
2026-09-12	MLB	Mickey Moniak MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.3pp	proj 1.8 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	6	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Jakob Marsee MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Michael Conforto MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+92.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Drew Cavanaugh MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+85.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	4	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	John Rave MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+79.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+74.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Héctor Rodríguez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	3	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Jorbit Vivas MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+72.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	Leody Taveras MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+68.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-12	MLB	KC MLB match winner	A	MED	-13.4pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-12	MLB	PHI MLB match winner	A	MED	-13.1pp	56%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-12	MLB	BAL MLB match winner	A	MED	-12.0pp	58%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-12	MLB	CIN MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.0pp	49%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-09-14 11:34:23 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.