For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.
| Predicted | N | Actual hit rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20% | — | no data | — |
| 20-40% | 2 | 100.0% | +70.0pp |
| 40-60% | 62 | 49.2% | -0.8pp |
| 60-80% | 2 | 50.0% | -20.0pp |
| 80-100% | — | no data | — |
Which sport's locks are paying off.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 228 | 43.6% | $-46.90 | -5.7% |
ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELITE | 160 | 40.6% | $-30.00 | -18.8% |
| STRONG | 2 | 50.0% | $+0.00 | +0.0% |
| MED | 66 | 50.8% | $-16.90 | -2.6% |
Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB prop · Total Bases | 162 | 40.7% | $-30.00 | -18.5% |
| MLB total runs | 36 | 45.7% | $-58.02 | -16.1% |
| MLB match winner | 30 | 56.7% | $+41.12 | +13.7% |
Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.
| Bucket | N | Hit rate | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB-PP | 162 | 40.7% | $-30.00 | -18.5% |
| MLB-ML | 66 | 50.8% | $-16.90 | -2.6% |
| Date | Sport | Pick | Side | Tier | Edge | Model said | Actual | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Jackson Holliday MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Lars Nootbaar MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +98.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Ryan Waldschmidt MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Leody Taveras MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +67.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | MLB | Colt Emerson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +61.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Carson Benge MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Marcus Semien MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +96.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 7 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Willi Castro MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +86.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 4 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Kyle Manzardo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Hao-Yu Lee MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +97.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Lawrence Butler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +95.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Tristan Peters MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Jorge Soler MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +93.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 5 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Petey Halpin MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +77.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | Drew Gilbert MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +72.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | MLB | Mickey Moniak MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | MLB | Gavin Sheets MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | MLB | Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | MLB | Kerry Carpenter MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | MLB | Jazz Chisholm Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.3pp | proj 1.8 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | MLB | Brett Baty MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 3 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | MLB | Petey Halpin MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +85.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | MLB | Isaac Collins MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +83.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | MLB | LaMonte Wade Jr. MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | MLB | Taylor Walls MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +64.0pp | proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | MLB | Gavin Sheets MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | MLB | Kyle Manzardo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | MLB | Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +80.0pp | proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | MLB | Jared Young MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.2pp | proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | MLB | Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | MLB | Griffin Conine MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +92.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | MLB | Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | MLB | Joey Ortiz MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +71.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 6 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | MLB | Cal Raleigh MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.5pp | proj 2.0 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | MLB | Kyle Manzardo MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | MLB | Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +1.1pp | proj 1.6 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | MLB | Trevor Larnach MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +99.0pp | proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | 1 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | MLB | Dalton Rushing MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +90.0pp | proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | 0 | $1 | MISS | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | MLB | Kahlil Watson MLB prop · Total Bases | MORE | ELITE | +69.0pp | proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | 2 | $1 | HIT | $+1.00 |