Accuracy Tracker

Picks graded

579

251 hit · 324 miss · 4 push

Hit rate

43.7%

excludes pushes

Cumulative P&L

$-187.73

on $1648 staked

ROI

-11.4%

paper + real combined

CUMULATIVE P&L (last 30 days)

CALIBRATION · IS THE MODEL HONEST?

For each probability bucket, the actual hit rate of picks placed at that confidence level. Calibration gap = actual − predicted (midpoint). Green = well-calibrated, red = model is mis-calibrated.

Predicted	N	Actual hit rate	Gap
0-20%	—	no data	—
20-40%	3	0.0%	-30.0pp
40-60%	102	50.5%	+0.5pp
60-80%	15	42.9%	-27.1pp
80-100%	—	no data	—

Performance breakdown

By sport

Which sport's locks are paying off.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB	579	43.7%	$-187.73	-11.4%

By tier

ELITE picks should clear 60%+ hit rate. STRONG > 55%. MED > 50%.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
ELITE	445	43.1%	$-61.00	-13.7%
STRONG	10	20.0%	$-6.00	-60.0%
MED	124	47.5%	$-120.73	-10.1%

By market type

Which bet types are model strengths / weaknesses.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB prop · Total Bases	452	42.5%	$-68.00	-15.0%
MLB total runs	71	50.7%	$-77.79	-11.0%
MLB match winner	48	43.8%	$-42.44	-8.8%
MLB prop · Pitcher Strikeouts	7	42.9%	$-0.50	-11.1%
MLB prop · Walks Allowed	1	100.0%	$+1.00	+100.0%

By source feed

Which paper-trade source is contributing the most.

Bucket	N	Hit rate	P&L	ROI
MLB-PP	460	42.6%	$-67.50	-14.8%
MLB-ML	119	47.8%	$-120.23	-10.1%

Recent Graded Picks (latest 50 · model prediction vs actual)

Date	Sport	Pick	Side	Tier	Edge	Model said	Actual	Stake	Result	P&L
2026-09-09	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Ian Happ MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Richie Palacios MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Ezequiel Tovar MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Mike Yastrzemski MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Donovan Walton MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+89.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Jake Cronenworth MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+80.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	JJ Bleday MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+78.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Cedric Mullins MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+74.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Elias Díaz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+73.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	Jorbit Vivas MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+72.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	David Hamilton MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+68.0pp	proj 1.2 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	George Springer MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	STRONG	+61.0pp	proj 2.1 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-09	MLB	TOR MLB match winner	H	MED	+13.9pp	52%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+9.15
2026-09-09	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.3pp	48%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-09	MLB	LAA MLB match winner	A	MED	-8.1pp	42%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+13.61
2026-09-09	MLB	WSH MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	62%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.25
2026-09-09	MLB	COL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	60%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-09	MLB	STL MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	60%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.68
2026-09-09	MLB	CLE MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+6.81
2026-09-09	MLB	LAA MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.08
2026-09-08	MLB	Michael Busch MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.5pp	proj 2.0 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Eugenio Suárez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Troy Johnston MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.2pp	proj 1.7 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Ezequiel Tovar MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Francisco Alvarez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Eli White MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.1pp	proj 1.6 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Connor Norby MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Abimelec Ortiz MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Carson Kelly MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Sean Murphy MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+1.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Colton Cowser MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Trevor Larnach MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+99.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Austin Wells MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+97.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Cole Carrigg MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+96.0pp	proj 1.5 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Joe Mack MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Nolan Gorman MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+93.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Shohei Ohtani MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+90.0pp	proj 2.4 vs line 1.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Nasim Nuñez MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+86.0pp	proj 1.4 vs line 0.5	0	$1	MISS	$-1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Matt McLain MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+84.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	1	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	Evan Carter MLB prop · Total Bases	MORE	ELITE	+83.0pp	proj 1.3 vs line 0.5	2	$1	HIT	$+1.00
2026-09-08	MLB	TOR MLB match winner	H	MED	+13.3pp	51%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-08	MLB	WSH MLB match winner	A	MED	-11.9pp	50%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-08	MLB	NYM MLB match winner	A	MED	-10.9pp	58%	✓ cleared	$10	HIT	$+7.37
2026-09-08	MLB	CIN MLB match winner	A	MED	-9.5pp	36%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00
2026-09-08	MLB	AZ MLB total runs	O	MED	+0.0pp	59%	✗ missed	$10	MISS	$-10.00

Accuracy Tracker · generated 2026-09-09 22:32:53 · meta-refresh every 5 min · edgeboard-accuracy.pages.dev
Aggregates every paper-trade JSON across MLB / WC / Tennis. EOD graders run via the unified scheduler evening pipeline.